Private polls consistently place Spain’s People’s Party (PP) at 31–32% and ahead of the PSOE by 4–6 points ahead of the 29 November snap election, translating into a projected lead in seats. This positioning reflects the center-right’s stronger momentum after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the vote following parliamentary defeats on housing decrees, combined with persistent fragmentation on the left that has limited Broad Front unity and mobilization. Vox’s steady 18–20% support further strengthens the right’s overall position without displacing PP as the largest single party. State-run CIS surveys remain outliers favoring the PSOE, while most aggregators and seat models show PP securing the most seats. Trader consensus therefore prices PP as the clear leader in the winner market, with PSOE the only other outcome carrying meaningful probability.