Traders have assigned PP a 94.5% implied probability of winning Melilla's congressional seat in the next Spanish general election, reflecting the party's longstanding structural advantage in the enclave's single-member district. Consistent voter patterns among the territory's conservative base, combined with limited recent polling shifts or candidate announcements that could alter the balance, underpin this consensus. Lower probabilities for Vox, PSOE, and smaller parties indicate traders see few near-term catalysts capable of narrowing the gap. Scenarios that could still adjust these odds include unexpected turnout changes, last-minute alliances, or developments in national party strategies that affect local campaigning within the resolution window.