A strengthening very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.8 °C and models projecting a record peak near +3.5–4.0 °C by late 2026, is the dominant driver pushing trader sentiment toward the closely matched 1.35–1.44 °C bins for September’s global mean temperature anomaly. Recent ERA5 and Berkeley Earth data show August 2026 already at +1.40 °C, with September tracking near or above prior record Septembers despite the event’s primary Pacific influence lagging by several months. Background anthropogenic warming, rapid ocean heat uptake, and model spread in ENSO timing create the narrow gap between leading outcomes, while lower-probability bins below 1.30 °C or above 1.49 °C reflect uncertainty in exact landfall timing of the warming signal and any short-term aerosol or volcanic offsets. Updated NOAA and ECMWF forecasts through October will refine these market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.40–1.44ºC 42%
<1.30ºC 41%
1.35–1.39ºC 41%
1.45–1.49ºC 25%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
41%
1.30–1.34ºC
10%
1.35–1.39ºC
41%
1.40–1.44ºC
42%
1.45–1.49ºC
25%
>1.49ºC
12%
1.40–1.44ºC 42%
<1.30ºC 41%
1.35–1.39ºC 41%
1.45–1.49ºC 25%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$22 Wol.
41%
1.30–1.34ºC
$1,024 Wol.
10%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Wol.
41%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Wol.
42%
1.45–1.49ºC
$74 Wol.
25%
>1.49ºC
$80 Wol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.8 °C and models projecting a record peak near +3.5–4.0 °C by late 2026, is the dominant driver pushing trader sentiment toward the closely matched 1.35–1.44 °C bins for September’s global mean temperature anomaly. Recent ERA5 and Berkeley Earth data show August 2026 already at +1.40 °C, with September tracking near or above prior record Septembers despite the event’s primary Pacific influence lagging by several months. Background anthropogenic warming, rapid ocean heat uptake, and model spread in ENSO timing create the narrow gap between leading outcomes, while lower-probability bins below 1.30 °C or above 1.49 °C reflect uncertainty in exact landfall timing of the warming signal and any short-term aerosol or volcanic offsets. Updated NOAA and ECMWF forecasts through October will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,200Data zakończenia
Oct 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.8 °C and models projecting a record peak near +3.5–4.0 °C by late 2026, is the dominant driver pushing trader sentiment toward the closely matched 1.35–1.44 °C bins for September’s global mean temperature anomaly. Recent ERA5 and Berkeley Earth data show August 2026 already at +1.40 °C, with September tracking near or above prior record Septembers despite the event’s primary Pacific influence lagging by several months. Background anthropogenic warming, rapid ocean heat uptake, and model spread in ENSO timing create the narrow gap between leading outcomes, while lower-probability bins below 1.30 °C or above 1.49 °C reflect uncertainty in exact landfall timing of the warming signal and any short-term aerosol or volcanic offsets. Updated NOAA and ECMWF forecasts through October will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$1,200Data zakończenia
Oct 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.8 °C and models projecting a record peak near +3.5–4.0 °C by late 2026, is the dominant driver pushing trader sentiment toward the closely matched 1.35–1.44 °C bins for September’s global mean temperature anomaly. Recent ERA5 and Berkeley Earth data show August 2026 already at +1.40 °C, with September tracking near or above prior record Septembers despite the event’s primary Pacific influence lagging by several months. Background anthropogenic warming, rapid ocean heat uptake, and model spread in ENSO timing create the narrow gap between leading outcomes, while lower-probability bins below 1.30 °C or above 1.49 °C reflect uncertainty in exact landfall timing of the warming signal and any short-term aerosol or volcanic offsets. Updated NOAA and ECMWF forecasts through October will refine these market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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