A strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.7°C and forecast to peak near or above prior records, is the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean surface temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic baseline. Official analyses show August 2026 tying the all-time monthly record at +1.65°C relative to 1850–1900, with early September observations and ensembles projecting a comparable or slightly higher anomaly as the event’s influence builds. Key differentiating factors among the closely matched market bins include the precise lag between Pacific SST peaks and global response, regional cloud and circulation feedbacks, and minor model divergences in the timing of intensification. Final Copernicus and NOAA monthly aggregates, typically released mid-October, will resolve the outcome amid inherent short-term variability around the elevated central tendency.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
>1.49ºC 50%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
>1.49ºC 50%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Wol.
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 Wol.
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Wol.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Wol.
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 Wol.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Wol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.7°C and forecast to peak near or above prior records, is the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean surface temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic baseline. Official analyses show August 2026 tying the all-time monthly record at +1.65°C relative to 1850–1900, with early September observations and ensembles projecting a comparable or slightly higher anomaly as the event’s influence builds. Key differentiating factors among the closely matched market bins include the precise lag between Pacific SST peaks and global response, regional cloud and circulation feedbacks, and minor model divergences in the timing of intensification. Final Copernicus and NOAA monthly aggregates, typically released mid-October, will resolve the outcome amid inherent short-term variability around the elevated central tendency.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Oct 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.7°C and forecast to peak near or above prior records, is the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean surface temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic baseline. Official analyses show August 2026 tying the all-time monthly record at +1.65°C relative to 1850–1900, with early September observations and ensembles projecting a comparable or slightly higher anomaly as the event’s influence builds. Key differentiating factors among the closely matched market bins include the precise lag between Pacific SST peaks and global response, regional cloud and circulation feedbacks, and minor model divergences in the timing of intensification. Final Copernicus and NOAA monthly aggregates, typically released mid-October, will resolve the outcome amid inherent short-term variability around the elevated central tendency.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Oct 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...A strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.7°C and forecast to peak near or above prior records, is the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean surface temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic baseline. Official analyses show August 2026 tying the all-time monthly record at +1.65°C relative to 1850–1900, with early September observations and ensembles projecting a comparable or slightly higher anomaly as the event’s influence builds. Key differentiating factors among the closely matched market bins include the precise lag between Pacific SST peaks and global response, regional cloud and circulation feedbacks, and minor model divergences in the timing of intensification. Final Copernicus and NOAA monthly aggregates, typically released mid-October, will resolve the outcome amid inherent short-term variability around the elevated central tendency.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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