Recent observational data and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 for a strong but secondary ranking among all months on record. August 2026 set or tied the all-time global mean temperature benchmark near 16.96 °C according to Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA analyses, driven by long-term anthropogenic warming plus a rapidly intensifying El Niño with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +1.8 °C and projected to reach historic strength. Mid-month ECMWF and preliminary reanalysis estimates place September near 16.36 °C—well below August yet marginally above the prior September record of 16.38 °C—creating a margin that makes an all-time monthly high improbable while supporting a near-certain top-three September finish. The ongoing super El Niño and elevated baseline ocean heat content sustain elevated probabilities for second place, with any late-month cooling or model revisions the main variables that could shift the final ranking.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 90%
1st hottest 9%
3rd hottest 5.3%
4th or lower 5.2%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
9%
2nd hottest
90%
3rd hottest
5%
4th or lower
5%
2nd hottest 90%
1st hottest 9%
3rd hottest 5.3%
4th or lower 5.2%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$989 Wol.
9%
2nd hottest
$851 Wol.
90%
3rd hottest
$566 Wol.
5%
4th or lower
$861 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 for a strong but secondary ranking among all months on record. August 2026 set or tied the all-time global mean temperature benchmark near 16.96 °C according to Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA analyses, driven by long-term anthropogenic warming plus a rapidly intensifying El Niño with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +1.8 °C and projected to reach historic strength. Mid-month ECMWF and preliminary reanalysis estimates place September near 16.36 °C—well below August yet marginally above the prior September record of 16.38 °C—creating a margin that makes an all-time monthly high improbable while supporting a near-certain top-three September finish. The ongoing super El Niño and elevated baseline ocean heat content sustain elevated probabilities for second place, with any late-month cooling or model revisions the main variables that could shift the final ranking.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Wolumen
$3,267Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 for a strong but secondary ranking among all months on record. August 2026 set or tied the all-time global mean temperature benchmark near 16.96 °C according to Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA analyses, driven by long-term anthropogenic warming plus a rapidly intensifying El Niño with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +1.8 °C and projected to reach historic strength. Mid-month ECMWF and preliminary reanalysis estimates place September near 16.36 °C—well below August yet marginally above the prior September record of 16.38 °C—creating a margin that makes an all-time monthly high improbable while supporting a near-certain top-three September finish. The ongoing super El Niño and elevated baseline ocean heat content sustain elevated probabilities for second place, with any late-month cooling or model revisions the main variables that could shift the final ranking.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Wolumen
$3,267Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data and ensemble forecasts position September 2026 for a strong but secondary ranking among all months on record. August 2026 set or tied the all-time global mean temperature benchmark near 16.96 °C according to Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA analyses, driven by long-term anthropogenic warming plus a rapidly intensifying El Niño with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +1.8 °C and projected to reach historic strength. Mid-month ECMWF and preliminary reanalysis estimates place September near 16.36 °C—well below August yet marginally above the prior September record of 16.38 °C—creating a margin that makes an all-time monthly high improbable while supporting a near-certain top-three September finish. The ongoing super El Niño and elevated baseline ocean heat content sustain elevated probabilities for second place, with any late-month cooling or model revisions the main variables that could shift the final ranking.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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