Recent NSIDC analyses show Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers in August 2026—the seventh lowest on record—after early-summer melt tracked toward 2012 levels before cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and persistent low-pressure systems slowed losses. These conditions, contrasting with warmer peripheral seas earlier in the season, align current trajectories with the post-2010 average range and the 2025 minimum of 4.60 million square kilometers. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin as the September minimum nears mid-month, reflecting trader consensus on limited further decline absent major late-season weather shifts. Historical baselines confirm this outcome would continue the long-term downward trend without setting a new record low.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 78.3%
4.2-4.4m sq km 18.9%
<4m sq km 1.5%
4.0-4.2m sq km 1.1%
$78,115 Wol.
$78,115 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
2%
4.0-4.2m sq km
1%
4.2-4.4m sq km
19%
4.4-4.6m sq km
69%
4.6-4.8m sq km
1%
4.8-5m sq km
1%
5m+ sq km
<1%
4.4-4.6m sq km 78.3%
4.2-4.4m sq km 18.9%
<4m sq km 1.5%
4.0-4.2m sq km 1.1%
$78,115 Wol.
$78,115 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$33,489 Wol.
2%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$7,402 Wol.
1%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,682 Wol.
19%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$4,039 Wol.
69%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$10,207 Wol.
1%
4.8-5m sq km
$4,284 Wol.
1%
5m+ sq km
$15,013 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent NSIDC analyses show Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers in August 2026—the seventh lowest on record—after early-summer melt tracked toward 2012 levels before cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and persistent low-pressure systems slowed losses. These conditions, contrasting with warmer peripheral seas earlier in the season, align current trajectories with the post-2010 average range and the 2025 minimum of 4.60 million square kilometers. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin as the September minimum nears mid-month, reflecting trader consensus on limited further decline absent major late-season weather shifts. Historical baselines confirm this outcome would continue the long-term downward trend without setting a new record low.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$78,115Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent NSIDC analyses show Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers in August 2026—the seventh lowest on record—after early-summer melt tracked toward 2012 levels before cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and persistent low-pressure systems slowed losses. These conditions, contrasting with warmer peripheral seas earlier in the season, align current trajectories with the post-2010 average range and the 2025 minimum of 4.60 million square kilometers. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin as the September minimum nears mid-month, reflecting trader consensus on limited further decline absent major late-season weather shifts. Historical baselines confirm this outcome would continue the long-term downward trend without setting a new record low.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Wolumen
$78,115Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Recent NSIDC analyses show Arctic sea ice extent averaging 5.56 million square kilometers in August 2026—the seventh lowest on record—after early-summer melt tracked toward 2012 levels before cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures and persistent low-pressure systems slowed losses. These conditions, contrasting with warmer peripheral seas earlier in the season, align current trajectories with the post-2010 average range and the 2025 minimum of 4.60 million square kilometers. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer bin as the September minimum nears mid-month, reflecting trader consensus on limited further decline absent major late-season weather shifts. Historical baselines confirm this outcome would continue the long-term downward trend without setting a new record low.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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