Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ winning roughly 21 seats on average, with wide ranges reflecting tight races against the Parti Québécois in francophone ridings outside Montreal. The CAQ, now led by Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s January 2026 resignation, has seen its support stabilize near 22-24% amid a leadership transition, while the PQ holds a narrow popular-vote edge around 28-29%. Regional vote efficiency, voter shifts among francophones, and late-campaign developments such as upcoming debates could alter seat outcomes in competitive districts. Trader pricing across multiple bins signals ongoing uncertainty about whether the incumbent can limit losses or stage a modest recovery before the October 5 vote.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano30+ 35%
20-24 24%
<5 15.6%
5-9 13.5%
$20,574 Wol.
$20,574 Wol.
Oct 5, 2026
<5
13%
5-9
13%
10-14
7%
15-19
7%
20-24
24%
25-29
12%
30+
35%
30+ 35%
20-24 24%
<5 15.6%
5-9 13.5%
$20,574 Wol.
$20,574 Wol.
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$1,410 Wol.
13%
5-9
$1,984 Wol.
13%
10-14
$3,537 Wol.
7%
15-19
$1,896 Wol.
7%
20-24
$3,556 Wol.
24%
25-29
$1,794 Wol.
12%
30+
$6,396 Wol.
35%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ winning roughly 21 seats on average, with wide ranges reflecting tight races against the Parti Québécois in francophone ridings outside Montreal. The CAQ, now led by Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s January 2026 resignation, has seen its support stabilize near 22-24% amid a leadership transition, while the PQ holds a narrow popular-vote edge around 28-29%. Regional vote efficiency, voter shifts among francophones, and late-campaign developments such as upcoming debates could alter seat outcomes in competitive districts. Trader pricing across multiple bins signals ongoing uncertainty about whether the incumbent can limit losses or stage a modest recovery before the October 5 vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Wolumen
$20,574Data zakończenia
Oct 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ winning roughly 21 seats on average, with wide ranges reflecting tight races against the Parti Québécois in francophone ridings outside Montreal. The CAQ, now led by Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s January 2026 resignation, has seen its support stabilize near 22-24% amid a leadership transition, while the PQ holds a narrow popular-vote edge around 28-29%. Regional vote efficiency, voter shifts among francophones, and late-campaign developments such as upcoming debates could alter seat outcomes in competitive districts. Trader pricing across multiple bins signals ongoing uncertainty about whether the incumbent can limit losses or stage a modest recovery before the October 5 vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Wolumen
$20,574Data zakończenia
Oct 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ winning roughly 21 seats on average, with wide ranges reflecting tight races against the Parti Québécois in francophone ridings outside Montreal. The CAQ, now led by Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s January 2026 resignation, has seen its support stabilize near 22-24% amid a leadership transition, while the PQ holds a narrow popular-vote edge around 28-29%. Regional vote efficiency, voter shifts among francophones, and late-campaign developments such as upcoming debates could alter seat outcomes in competitive districts. Trader pricing across multiple bins signals ongoing uncertainty about whether the incumbent can limit losses or stage a modest recovery before the October 5 vote.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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