Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in a June 2026 primary, defeating a crowded field that included fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg. This outcome, backed by retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler’s endorsement and significant support from former Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s super PAC, positions Lasher as the clear frontrunner in the November general election. The Manhattan-based district, encompassing Midtown, the Upper East Side, and Upper West Side, maintains a strong Democratic registration advantage exceeding six-to-one over Republicans. Caroline Shinkle, the unopposed Republican nominee and a Midtown attorney, faces structural barriers typical of the seat, which Cook Political Report has rated as solidly Democratic. Trader consensus reflects these partisan fundamentals and primary results, with limited recent developments altering the landscape ahead of the November vote. Scenarios such as unusually low Democratic turnout or late-breaking events could theoretically narrow margins, though the district’s composition has historically delivered consistent results for the majority party.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,897 Wol.
$32,897 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
97%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
<1%
$32,897 Wol.
$32,897 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
$17,262 Wol.
97%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
$15,635 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in a June 2026 primary, defeating a crowded field that included fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg. This outcome, backed by retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler’s endorsement and significant support from former Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s super PAC, positions Lasher as the clear frontrunner in the November general election. The Manhattan-based district, encompassing Midtown, the Upper East Side, and Upper West Side, maintains a strong Democratic registration advantage exceeding six-to-one over Republicans. Caroline Shinkle, the unopposed Republican nominee and a Midtown attorney, faces structural barriers typical of the seat, which Cook Political Report has rated as solidly Democratic. Trader consensus reflects these partisan fundamentals and primary results, with limited recent developments altering the landscape ahead of the November vote. Scenarios such as unusually low Democratic turnout or late-breaking events could theoretically narrow margins, though the district’s composition has historically delivered consistent results for the majority party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Wolumen
$32,897Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in a June 2026 primary, defeating a crowded field that included fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg. This outcome, backed by retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler’s endorsement and significant support from former Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s super PAC, positions Lasher as the clear frontrunner in the November general election. The Manhattan-based district, encompassing Midtown, the Upper East Side, and Upper West Side, maintains a strong Democratic registration advantage exceeding six-to-one over Republicans. Caroline Shinkle, the unopposed Republican nominee and a Midtown attorney, faces structural barriers typical of the seat, which Cook Political Report has rated as solidly Democratic. Trader consensus reflects these partisan fundamentals and primary results, with limited recent developments altering the landscape ahead of the November vote. Scenarios such as unusually low Democratic turnout or late-breaking events could theoretically narrow margins, though the district’s composition has historically delivered consistent results for the majority party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$32,897Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in a June 2026 primary, defeating a crowded field that included fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg. This outcome, backed by retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler’s endorsement and significant support from former Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s super PAC, positions Lasher as the clear frontrunner in the November general election. The Manhattan-based district, encompassing Midtown, the Upper East Side, and Upper West Side, maintains a strong Democratic registration advantage exceeding six-to-one over Republicans. Caroline Shinkle, the unopposed Republican nominee and a Midtown attorney, faces structural barriers typical of the seat, which Cook Political Report has rated as solidly Democratic. Trader consensus reflects these partisan fundamentals and primary results, with limited recent developments altering the landscape ahead of the November vote. Scenarios such as unusually low Democratic turnout or late-breaking events could theoretically narrow margins, though the district’s composition has historically delivered consistent results for the majority party.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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