Wang Chung-ming, the Kuomintang incumbent magistrate of Lienchiang County, holds an 86.5% implied probability as the leading outcome in the November 28, 2026 local election. This positioning stems from his 2022 victory, party nomination secured in June, and the county’s consistent KMT alignment in a low-population offshore constituency with limited organized opposition. Tsao Erh-yuan, the independent challenger and former KMT official in a rematch of the prior contest, registers at just 5%, reflecting the structural barriers for non-party candidates. Candidate registration closed in early September with no Democratic Progressive Party entrant, reinforcing the absence of competitive alternatives and leaving market pricing anchored to the incumbent’s established local support base ahead of the vote.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWang Chung-ming 87%
Tsao Erh-yuan 5.0%
Tsao Erh-chang <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 30, 2027
Wang Chung-ming
87%
Tsao Erh-yuan
5%
Tsao Erh-chang
<1%
Wang Chung-ming 87%
Tsao Erh-yuan 5.0%
Tsao Erh-chang <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 30, 2027
Wang Chung-ming
$4,073 Wol.
87%
Tsao Erh-yuan
$777 Wol.
5%
Tsao Erh-chang
$1,000 Wol.
<1%
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Wang Chung-ming, the Kuomintang incumbent magistrate of Lienchiang County, holds an 86.5% implied probability as the leading outcome in the November 28, 2026 local election. This positioning stems from his 2022 victory, party nomination secured in June, and the county’s consistent KMT alignment in a low-population offshore constituency with limited organized opposition. Tsao Erh-yuan, the independent challenger and former KMT official in a rematch of the prior contest, registers at just 5%, reflecting the structural barriers for non-party candidates. Candidate registration closed in early September with no Democratic Progressive Party entrant, reinforcing the absence of competitive alternatives and leaving market pricing anchored to the incumbent’s established local support base ahead of the vote.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 14, 2026, 9:06 AM ET
Wolumen
$5,850Data zakończenia
Nov 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 9:06 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Wang Chung-ming, the Kuomintang incumbent magistrate of Lienchiang County, holds an 86.5% implied probability as the leading outcome in the November 28, 2026 local election. This positioning stems from his 2022 victory, party nomination secured in June, and the county’s consistent KMT alignment in a low-population offshore constituency with limited organized opposition. Tsao Erh-yuan, the independent challenger and former KMT official in a rematch of the prior contest, registers at just 5%, reflecting the structural barriers for non-party candidates. Candidate registration closed in early September with no Democratic Progressive Party entrant, reinforcing the absence of competitive alternatives and leaving market pricing anchored to the incumbent’s established local support base ahead of the vote.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Wolumen
$5,850Data zakończenia
Nov 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 9:06 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wang Chung-ming, the Kuomintang incumbent magistrate of Lienchiang County, holds an 86.5% implied probability as the leading outcome in the November 28, 2026 local election. This positioning stems from his 2022 victory, party nomination secured in June, and the county’s consistent KMT alignment in a low-population offshore constituency with limited organized opposition. Tsao Erh-yuan, the independent challenger and former KMT official in a rematch of the prior contest, registers at just 5%, reflecting the structural barriers for non-party candidates. Candidate registration closed in early September with no Democratic Progressive Party entrant, reinforcing the absence of competitive alternatives and leaving market pricing anchored to the incumbent’s established local support base ahead of the vote.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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