José Maria Neves, the incumbent PAICV president elected in 2021, holds an implied probability of 79.5% in the November 15, 2026, contest, reflecting his strong position ahead of a potential second round on November 29. The PAICV’s May 2026 parliamentary victory, which installed Francisco Carvalho as prime minister and ended cohabitation with the MpD, has aligned executive and legislative power, boosting Neves’ re-election prospects under Cape Verde’s two-round system. Minor candidates from the MpD, including Janine Lélis and Joana Rosa, along with independents such as Joana Rosa, Casimiro de Pina, and others, trail with single-digit or lower implied probabilities, consistent with the country’s dominant two-party structure and historical first-round outcomes. Candidate registration deadlines and diaspora voting logistics remain key procedural factors in the coming weeks.