California's 48th congressional district race between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond remains one of the closest House contests heading into the November 2026 midterms. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego-area seat to a D+2 partisan voting index with a narrow Democratic registration edge after decades of Republican dominance, while incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement created an open seat. Both nominees advanced from the June primary with strong local profiles—von Wilpert as a city council member and Desmond as a county supervisor—and recent polling shows statistical ties or single-digit leads amid low undecideds. Trader pricing across narrow margin buckets reflects this balance, with limited separation expected absent major shifts in turnout, national conditions, or late campaign developments before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-48 House Election Margin of Victory
CA-48 House Election Margin of Victory
Republican 0-3% 42.8%
Democrat 0-3% 42.4%
Democrat 6-9% 42.4%
Democrat 3-6% 42.3%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 21%+
42%
Democrat 18-21%
42%
Democrat 15-18%
42%
Democrat 12-15%
27%
Democrat 9-12%
42%
Democrat 6-9%
42%
Democrat 3-6%
42%
Democrat 0-3%
42%
Republican 0-3%
43%
Republican 3%+
42%
Republican 0-3% 42.8%
Democrat 0-3% 42.4%
Democrat 6-9% 42.4%
Democrat 3-6% 42.3%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 21%+
$40 Wol.
42%
Democrat 18-21%
$40 Wol.
42%
Democrat 15-18%
$0 Wol.
42%
Democrat 12-15%
$81 Wol.
27%
Democrat 9-12%
$80 Wol.
42%
Democrat 6-9%
$0 Wol.
42%
Democrat 3-6%
$80 Wol.
42%
Democrat 0-3%
$40 Wol.
42%
Republican 0-3%
$40 Wol.
43%
Republican 3%+
$10 Wol.
42%
The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California's 48th congressional district race between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond remains one of the closest House contests heading into the November 2026 midterms. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego-area seat to a D+2 partisan voting index with a narrow Democratic registration edge after decades of Republican dominance, while incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement created an open seat. Both nominees advanced from the June primary with strong local profiles—von Wilpert as a city council member and Desmond as a county supervisor—and recent polling shows statistical ties or single-digit leads amid low undecideds. Trader pricing across narrow margin buckets reflects this balance, with limited separation expected absent major shifts in turnout, national conditions, or late campaign developments before Election Day.
The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Wolumen
$411Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California's 48th congressional district race between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond remains one of the closest House contests heading into the November 2026 midterms. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego-area seat to a D+2 partisan voting index with a narrow Democratic registration edge after decades of Republican dominance, while incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement created an open seat. Both nominees advanced from the June primary with strong local profiles—von Wilpert as a city council member and Desmond as a county supervisor—and recent polling shows statistical ties or single-digit leads amid low undecideds. Trader pricing across narrow margin buckets reflects this balance, with limited separation expected absent major shifts in turnout, national conditions, or late campaign developments before Election Day.
The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$411Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...California's 48th congressional district race between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond remains one of the closest House contests heading into the November 2026 midterms. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego-area seat to a D+2 partisan voting index with a narrow Democratic registration edge after decades of Republican dominance, while incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement created an open seat. Both nominees advanced from the June primary with strong local profiles—von Wilpert as a city council member and Desmond as a county supervisor—and recent polling shows statistical ties or single-digit leads amid low undecideds. Trader pricing across narrow margin buckets reflects this balance, with limited separation expected absent major shifts in turnout, national conditions, or late campaign developments before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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