US intelligence assessments and Taiwan’s 2026 military power report indicate Chinese leaders currently lack both a fixed timeline and the full amphibious capabilities needed for a successful Taiwan invasion by late 2027, favoring instead sustained gray-zone coercion through air and naval patrols, coast guard operations, and blockade rehearsals. Xi Jinping’s recent purges of senior PLA officers have further degraded command structures required for complex joint operations, shifting focus toward capability-building ahead of the 2027 PLA centenary milestone rather than immediate action. Ongoing Taiwanese modernization efforts, including drone integration and precision-strike drills, combined with US deterrence signals, reinforce the trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% probability assigned to no invasion by the resolution date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
12% 確率
$3,236,760 Vol.
$3,236,760 Vol.
2027/12/31
3.25%を獲得
はい
12% 確率
$3,236,760 Vol.
$3,236,760 Vol.
2027/12/31
3.25%を獲得
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments and Taiwan’s 2026 military power report indicate Chinese leaders currently lack both a fixed timeline and the full amphibious capabilities needed for a successful Taiwan invasion by late 2027, favoring instead sustained gray-zone coercion through air and naval patrols, coast guard operations, and blockade rehearsals. Xi Jinping’s recent purges of senior PLA officers have further degraded command structures required for complex joint operations, shifting focus toward capability-building ahead of the 2027 PLA centenary milestone rather than immediate action. Ongoing Taiwanese modernization efforts, including drone integration and precision-strike drills, combined with US deterrence signals, reinforce the trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% probability assigned to no invasion by the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
音量
$3,236,760終了日
2028/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments and Taiwan’s 2026 military power report indicate Chinese leaders currently lack both a fixed timeline and the full amphibious capabilities needed for a successful Taiwan invasion by late 2027, favoring instead sustained gray-zone coercion through air and naval patrols, coast guard operations, and blockade rehearsals. Xi Jinping’s recent purges of senior PLA officers have further degraded command structures required for complex joint operations, shifting focus toward capability-building ahead of the 2027 PLA centenary milestone rather than immediate action. Ongoing Taiwanese modernization efforts, including drone integration and precision-strike drills, combined with US deterrence signals, reinforce the trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% probability assigned to no invasion by the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$3,236,760終了日
2028/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments and Taiwan’s 2026 military power report indicate Chinese leaders currently lack both a fixed timeline and the full amphibious capabilities needed for a successful Taiwan invasion by late 2027, favoring instead sustained gray-zone coercion through air and naval patrols, coast guard operations, and blockade rehearsals. Xi Jinping’s recent purges of senior PLA officers have further degraded command structures required for complex joint operations, shifting focus toward capability-building ahead of the 2027 PLA centenary milestone rather than immediate action. Ongoing Taiwanese modernization efforts, including drone integration and precision-strike drills, combined with US deterrence signals, reinforce the trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% probability assigned to no invasion by the resolution date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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