US extended deterrence commitments, NPT obligations, and IAEA safeguards continue to shape allied security calculations, with recent debates in capitals such as Seoul, Tokyo, and Warsaw reflecting hedging discussions rather than active breakout programs. No verifiable evidence indicates any US ally maintains the infrastructure, fissile material production, or political authorization needed to field an operational nuclear weapon in the remaining months of 2026. The compressed timeframe to 2027 reinforces trader consensus around the “No” outcome, as weaponization timelines typically span years even under accelerated conditions. Late developments such as an unforeseen crisis prompting rapid policy reversal or disclosure of a covert advanced program could theoretically alter probabilities, though both remain remote given ongoing alliance coordination and verification mechanisms.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$212,517 Vol.
$212,517 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
$212,517 Vol.
$212,517 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US extended deterrence commitments, NPT obligations, and IAEA safeguards continue to shape allied security calculations, with recent debates in capitals such as Seoul, Tokyo, and Warsaw reflecting hedging discussions rather than active breakout programs. No verifiable evidence indicates any US ally maintains the infrastructure, fissile material production, or political authorization needed to field an operational nuclear weapon in the remaining months of 2026. The compressed timeframe to 2027 reinforces trader consensus around the “No” outcome, as weaponization timelines typically span years even under accelerated conditions. Late developments such as an unforeseen crisis prompting rapid policy reversal or disclosure of a covert advanced program could theoretically alter probabilities, though both remain remote given ongoing alliance coordination and verification mechanisms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
音量
$212,517終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US extended deterrence commitments, NPT obligations, and IAEA safeguards continue to shape allied security calculations, with recent debates in capitals such as Seoul, Tokyo, and Warsaw reflecting hedging discussions rather than active breakout programs. No verifiable evidence indicates any US ally maintains the infrastructure, fissile material production, or political authorization needed to field an operational nuclear weapon in the remaining months of 2026. The compressed timeframe to 2027 reinforces trader consensus around the “No” outcome, as weaponization timelines typically span years even under accelerated conditions. Late developments such as an unforeseen crisis prompting rapid policy reversal or disclosure of a covert advanced program could theoretically alter probabilities, though both remain remote given ongoing alliance coordination and verification mechanisms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$212,517終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...US extended deterrence commitments, NPT obligations, and IAEA safeguards continue to shape allied security calculations, with recent debates in capitals such as Seoul, Tokyo, and Warsaw reflecting hedging discussions rather than active breakout programs. No verifiable evidence indicates any US ally maintains the infrastructure, fissile material production, or political authorization needed to field an operational nuclear weapon in the remaining months of 2026. The compressed timeframe to 2027 reinforces trader consensus around the “No” outcome, as weaponization timelines typically span years even under accelerated conditions. Late developments such as an unforeseen crisis prompting rapid policy reversal or disclosure of a covert advanced program could theoretically alter probabilities, though both remain remote given ongoing alliance coordination and verification mechanisms.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問