Vermont’s at-large House district remains a solidly Democratic seat, with trader pricing on the margin of victory reflecting incumbent Becca Balint’s consistent double-digit polling advantage and the state’s long-standing partisan lean. University of New Hampshire surveys from June and July 2026 showed Balint leading Republican nominee Gerald Malloy by 31 to 38 points among likely voters after the August primaries, aligning with the heaviest volume in the 35-45% Democratic margin buckets. Balint secured near-unanimous renomination while Malloy consolidated the Republican side, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest safe or solid Democratic with no competitive path for the challenger. Vermont’s partisan voting index and historical results exceeding 30-point Democratic margins in recent cycles further anchor expectations. Limited new developments since the primaries have kept probabilities stable, though any late shifts in turnout or national conditions could still adjust the final spread within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Democrat 40-45% 30%
Democrat 45-50% 20%
Democrat 50-55% 16.2%
Democrat 30-35% 15%
$11,186 Vol.
$11,186 Vol.
2026/11/03
Democrat 55%+
1%
Democrat 50-55%
16%
Democrat 45-50%
20%
Democrat 40-45%
30%
Democrat 35-40%
13%
Democrat 30-35%
15%
Democrat 25-30%
1%
Democrat 15-25%
<1%
Democrat 0-15%
1%
Republican Wins
1%
Democrat 40-45% 30%
Democrat 45-50% 20%
Democrat 50-55% 16.2%
Democrat 30-35% 15%
$11,186 Vol.
$11,186 Vol.
2026/11/03
Democrat 55%+
$652 Vol.
1%
Democrat 50-55%
$516 Vol.
16%
Democrat 45-50%
$1,269 Vol.
20%
Democrat 40-45%
$2,432 Vol.
30%
Democrat 35-40%
$2,337 Vol.
13%
Democrat 30-35%
$1,960 Vol.
15%
Democrat 25-30%
$624 Vol.
1%
Democrat 15-25%
$494 Vol.
<1%
Democrat 0-15%
$404 Vol.
1%
Republican Wins
$496 Vol.
1%
The 2026 VT-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VT-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Vermont’s at-large House district remains a solidly Democratic seat, with trader pricing on the margin of victory reflecting incumbent Becca Balint’s consistent double-digit polling advantage and the state’s long-standing partisan lean. University of New Hampshire surveys from June and July 2026 showed Balint leading Republican nominee Gerald Malloy by 31 to 38 points among likely voters after the August primaries, aligning with the heaviest volume in the 35-45% Democratic margin buckets. Balint secured near-unanimous renomination while Malloy consolidated the Republican side, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest safe or solid Democratic with no competitive path for the challenger. Vermont’s partisan voting index and historical results exceeding 30-point Democratic margins in recent cycles further anchor expectations. Limited new developments since the primaries have kept probabilities stable, though any late shifts in turnout or national conditions could still adjust the final spread within the resolution window.
The 2026 VT-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VT-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VT-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ET
音量
$11,186終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 VT-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VT-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Vermont’s at-large House district remains a solidly Democratic seat, with trader pricing on the margin of victory reflecting incumbent Becca Balint’s consistent double-digit polling advantage and the state’s long-standing partisan lean. University of New Hampshire surveys from June and July 2026 showed Balint leading Republican nominee Gerald Malloy by 31 to 38 points among likely voters after the August primaries, aligning with the heaviest volume in the 35-45% Democratic margin buckets. Balint secured near-unanimous renomination while Malloy consolidated the Republican side, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest safe or solid Democratic with no competitive path for the challenger. Vermont’s partisan voting index and historical results exceeding 30-point Democratic margins in recent cycles further anchor expectations. Limited new developments since the primaries have kept probabilities stable, though any late shifts in turnout or national conditions could still adjust the final spread within the resolution window.
The 2026 VT-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VT-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VT-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$11,186終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Vermont’s at-large House district remains a solidly Democratic seat, with trader pricing on the margin of victory reflecting incumbent Becca Balint’s consistent double-digit polling advantage and the state’s long-standing partisan lean. University of New Hampshire surveys from June and July 2026 showed Balint leading Republican nominee Gerald Malloy by 31 to 38 points among likely voters after the August primaries, aligning with the heaviest volume in the 35-45% Democratic margin buckets. Balint secured near-unanimous renomination while Malloy consolidated the Republican side, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest safe or solid Democratic with no competitive path for the challenger. Vermont’s partisan voting index and historical results exceeding 30-point Democratic margins in recent cycles further anchor expectations. Limited new developments since the primaries have kept probabilities stable, though any late shifts in turnout or national conditions could still adjust the final spread within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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