The September 18 by-election in Samoa’s Vaimauga 3 constituency follows the Electoral Court’s June ruling voiding the prior winner’s seat over bribery convictions, creating the third contest in the district in roughly a year. With FAST fielding Nonu Laulu William Mauia alongside Puaalatamai Filemoni and HRPP backing Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo, plus multiple independents including Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo, the fragmented field and short nomination-to-poll window have kept implied probabilities tightly clustered. Trader consensus reflects the absence of recent polling, ongoing party realignments after earlier defections, and uncertainty over local turnout in a constituency with a pattern of narrow margins and post-election legal challenges. Pre-polling on September 16 and any final endorsements or withdrawals before the writ return could shift positioning among the leading names.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ノヌ・レマウガ・ラウル・ウィリアム・マウイア 43%
ヴァイオフアイウポル・クリス・ファアオフォ 19%
スイアロ・レミガオイタマリイ・スイアロ 15.6%
プアアラタマイ・トゥプオラ・マラエウル・フィレモニ 4.5%
ノヌ・レマウガ・ラウル・ウィリアム・マウイア
43%
ヴァイオフアイウポル・クリス・ファアオフォ
19%
スイアロ・レミガオイタマリイ・スイアロ
16%
プアアラタマイ・トゥプオラ・マラエウル・フィレモニ
5%
ノヌ・レマウガ・ラウル・ウィリアム・マウイア 43%
ヴァイオフアイウポル・クリス・ファアオフォ 19%
スイアロ・レミガオイタマリイ・スイアロ 15.6%
プアアラタマイ・トゥプオラ・マラエウル・フィレモニ 4.5%
ノヌ・レマウガ・ラウル・ウィリアム・マウイア
43%
ヴァイオフアイウポル・クリス・ファアオフォ
19%
スイアロ・レミガオイタマリイ・スイアロ
16%
プアアラタマイ・トゥプオラ・マラエウル・フィレモニ
5%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
マーケット開始日： Aug 31, 2026, 3:58 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The September 18 by-election in Samoa’s Vaimauga 3 constituency follows the Electoral Court’s June ruling voiding the prior winner’s seat over bribery convictions, creating the third contest in the district in roughly a year. With FAST fielding Nonu Laulu William Mauia alongside Puaalatamai Filemoni and HRPP backing Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo, plus multiple independents including Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo, the fragmented field and short nomination-to-poll window have kept implied probabilities tightly clustered. Trader consensus reflects the absence of recent polling, ongoing party realignments after earlier defections, and uncertainty over local turnout in a constituency with a pattern of narrow margins and post-election legal challenges. Pre-polling on September 16 and any final endorsements or withdrawals before the writ return could shift positioning among the leading names.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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