Traders assign roughly even implied probabilities of 30-38% across September 12-17 for the next Grok model at version 4.7 or higher, signaling uncertainty over xAI's precise release window rather than a clear frontrunner. This clustering reflects xAI's pattern of rapid large language model iterations driven by competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, where demonstrated capabilities and benchmark results often determine timing. Recent official updates or internal progress reports on model training and safety evaluations likely anchor the near-term consensus, while the modest 30.8% on or prior to September 9 accounts for any last-minute shifts. Upcoming catalysts such as developer conferences, executive statements, or regulatory filings on AI deployment could quickly reprice outcomes as new information emerges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月12日 35.5%
9月16日 31.9%
9月15日 30.5%
9月17日 29.4%
新規
新規
2026/09/09
2026年9月9日まで
<1%
9月10日
1%
9月11日
1%
9月12日
36%
9月13日
1%
9月14日
33%
9月15日
31%
9月16日
32%
9月17日
29%
9月18日
21%
9月19日
1%
9月20日
1%
9月21日
1%
9月22日
3%
9月23日
7%
9月24日
3%
9月25日
1%
9月26日
<1%
9月27日
<1%
9月28日
1%
9月29日
1%
9月30日
1%
9月30日までにリリースなし
3%
9月12日 35.5%
9月16日 31.9%
9月15日 30.5%
9月17日 29.4%
新規
新規
2026/09/09
2026年9月9日まで
$166 Vol.
<1%
9月10日
$202 Vol.
1%
9月11日
$205 Vol.
1%
9月12日
$550 Vol.
36%
9月13日
$322 Vol.
1%
9月14日
$205 Vol.
33%
9月15日
$257 Vol.
31%
9月16日
$215 Vol.
32%
9月17日
$215 Vol.
29%
9月18日
$411 Vol.
21%
9月19日
$530 Vol.
1%
9月20日
$505 Vol.
1%
9月21日
$505 Vol.
1%
9月22日
$345 Vol.
3%
9月23日
$572 Vol.
7%
9月24日
$345 Vol.
3%
9月25日
$505 Vol.
1%
9月26日
$505 Vol.
<1%
9月27日
$505 Vol.
<1%
9月28日
$379 Vol.
1%
9月29日
$379 Vol.
1%
9月30日
$505 Vol.
1%
9月30日までにリリースなし
$345 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign roughly even implied probabilities of 30-38% across September 12-17 for the next Grok model at version 4.7 or higher, signaling uncertainty over xAI's precise release window rather than a clear frontrunner. This clustering reflects xAI's pattern of rapid large language model iterations driven by competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, where demonstrated capabilities and benchmark results often determine timing. Recent official updates or internal progress reports on model training and safety evaluations likely anchor the near-term consensus, while the modest 30.8% on or prior to September 9 accounts for any last-minute shifts. Upcoming catalysts such as developer conferences, executive statements, or regulatory filings on AI deployment could quickly reprice outcomes as new information emerges.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
音量
$8,674終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign roughly even implied probabilities of 30-38% across September 12-17 for the next Grok model at version 4.7 or higher, signaling uncertainty over xAI's precise release window rather than a clear frontrunner. This clustering reflects xAI's pattern of rapid large language model iterations driven by competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, where demonstrated capabilities and benchmark results often determine timing. Recent official updates or internal progress reports on model training and safety evaluations likely anchor the near-term consensus, while the modest 30.8% on or prior to September 9 accounts for any last-minute shifts. Upcoming catalysts such as developer conferences, executive statements, or regulatory filings on AI deployment could quickly reprice outcomes as new information emerges.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$8,674終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign roughly even implied probabilities of 30-38% across September 12-17 for the next Grok model at version 4.7 or higher, signaling uncertainty over xAI's precise release window rather than a clear frontrunner. This clustering reflects xAI's pattern of rapid large language model iterations driven by competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, where demonstrated capabilities and benchmark results often determine timing. Recent official updates or internal progress reports on model training and safety evaluations likely anchor the near-term consensus, while the modest 30.8% on or prior to September 9 accounts for any last-minute shifts. Upcoming catalysts such as developer conferences, executive statements, or regulatory filings on AI deployment could quickly reprice outcomes as new information emerges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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