NATO allies reaffirmed their ironclad commitment to Article 5 collective defense at the July 2026 Ankara summit, even amid U.S. troop reductions in Europe and earlier tensions over the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran. European members have accelerated defense spending and force posture adjustments on the eastern flank, including brigade deployments in the Baltics, while the Russia-Ukraine war continues without direct attacks on NATO territory. Recent hybrid incidents, such as reported Russian-linked sabotage attempts in Germany, have prompted coordinated responses short of invocation. Traders price the 94.5% probability of no invocation before 2027 on this sustained deterrence and absence of qualifying armed attacks, consistent with Article 5's sole prior use after 9/11.