NATO's institutional framework, including the requirement for coordinated withdrawals by a majority of its 32 members or unanimous treaty repeal, underpins the 98.4% trader consensus against dissolution before 2027. The July 2026 Ankara summit reaffirmed Article 5 collective defense commitments and alliance unity on Ukraine support, even amid U.S. troop posture reviews and European defense spending increases. No member has issued withdrawal notices, and recent diplomatic activity focuses on burden-sharing adjustments and capability enhancements rather than exits. While abrupt U.S. policy shifts, major escalations in ongoing conflicts, or coordinated realignments could theoretically accelerate fragmentation, the short timeline to December 2026 and entrenched legal thresholds make such outcomes highly improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
2% 確率
$123,840 Vol.
$123,840 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
2% 確率
$123,840 Vol.
$123,840 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional framework, including the requirement for coordinated withdrawals by a majority of its 32 members or unanimous treaty repeal, underpins the 98.4% trader consensus against dissolution before 2027. The July 2026 Ankara summit reaffirmed Article 5 collective defense commitments and alliance unity on Ukraine support, even amid U.S. troop posture reviews and European defense spending increases. No member has issued withdrawal notices, and recent diplomatic activity focuses on burden-sharing adjustments and capability enhancements rather than exits. While abrupt U.S. policy shifts, major escalations in ongoing conflicts, or coordinated realignments could theoretically accelerate fragmentation, the short timeline to December 2026 and entrenched legal thresholds make such outcomes highly improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
音量
$123,840終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional framework, including the requirement for coordinated withdrawals by a majority of its 32 members or unanimous treaty repeal, underpins the 98.4% trader consensus against dissolution before 2027. The July 2026 Ankara summit reaffirmed Article 5 collective defense commitments and alliance unity on Ukraine support, even amid U.S. troop posture reviews and European defense spending increases. No member has issued withdrawal notices, and recent diplomatic activity focuses on burden-sharing adjustments and capability enhancements rather than exits. While abrupt U.S. policy shifts, major escalations in ongoing conflicts, or coordinated realignments could theoretically accelerate fragmentation, the short timeline to December 2026 and entrenched legal thresholds make such outcomes highly improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$123,840終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...NATO's institutional framework, including the requirement for coordinated withdrawals by a majority of its 32 members or unanimous treaty repeal, underpins the 98.4% trader consensus against dissolution before 2027. The July 2026 Ankara summit reaffirmed Article 5 collective defense commitments and alliance unity on Ukraine support, even amid U.S. troop posture reviews and European defense spending increases. No member has issued withdrawal notices, and recent diplomatic activity focuses on burden-sharing adjustments and capability enhancements rather than exits. While abrupt U.S. policy shifts, major escalations in ongoing conflicts, or coordinated realignments could theoretically accelerate fragmentation, the short timeline to December 2026 and entrenched legal thresholds make such outcomes highly improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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