Troy Downing holds a commanding lead in the MT-02 House race due to the district's established Republican lean, his incumbency following a 2024 victory with roughly 66 percent of the vote, and an uncontested June 2026 primary. Multiple forecasters rate the eastern Montana seat, encompassing areas like Billings, Great Falls, and Helena, as solidly Republican. Downing's substantial fundraising advantage and the absence of competitive general-election polling reinforce trader consensus around his position. Brian Miller secured the Democratic nomination but faces structural headwinds in a district with consistent Republican voting patterns. Late developments such as national midterm shifts, turnout surges, or unforeseen candidate events could narrow margins, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$45,343 Vol.
$45,343 Vol.
2026/11/02
トロイ・ダウニング（共和党）
95%
ブライアン・ミラー（民主党）
5%
$45,343 Vol.
$45,343 Vol.
2026/11/02
トロイ・ダウニング（共和党）
$26,444 Vol.
95%
ブライアン・ミラー（民主党）
$18,899 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Troy Downing holds a commanding lead in the MT-02 House race due to the district's established Republican lean, his incumbency following a 2024 victory with roughly 66 percent of the vote, and an uncontested June 2026 primary. Multiple forecasters rate the eastern Montana seat, encompassing areas like Billings, Great Falls, and Helena, as solidly Republican. Downing's substantial fundraising advantage and the absence of competitive general-election polling reinforce trader consensus around his position. Brian Miller secured the Democratic nomination but faces structural headwinds in a district with consistent Republican voting patterns. Late developments such as national midterm shifts, turnout surges, or unforeseen candidate events could narrow margins, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$45,343終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Troy Downing holds a commanding lead in the MT-02 House race due to the district's established Republican lean, his incumbency following a 2024 victory with roughly 66 percent of the vote, and an uncontested June 2026 primary. Multiple forecasters rate the eastern Montana seat, encompassing areas like Billings, Great Falls, and Helena, as solidly Republican. Downing's substantial fundraising advantage and the absence of competitive general-election polling reinforce trader consensus around his position. Brian Miller secured the Democratic nomination but faces structural headwinds in a district with consistent Republican voting patterns. Late developments such as national midterm shifts, turnout surges, or unforeseen candidate events could narrow margins, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$45,343終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Troy Downing holds a commanding lead in the MT-02 House race due to the district's established Republican lean, his incumbency following a 2024 victory with roughly 66 percent of the vote, and an uncontested June 2026 primary. Multiple forecasters rate the eastern Montana seat, encompassing areas like Billings, Great Falls, and Helena, as solidly Republican. Downing's substantial fundraising advantage and the absence of competitive general-election polling reinforce trader consensus around his position. Brian Miller secured the Democratic nomination but faces structural headwinds in a district with consistent Republican voting patterns. Late developments such as national midterm shifts, turnout surges, or unforeseen candidate events could narrow margins, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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