Jill Tokuda’s status as the two-term incumbent in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring her reelection. The district’s consistent Democratic performance, including a 17.5-point presidential margin in 2024 and a Partisan Voter Index of D+12, combines with Tokuda’s August primary victory exceeding 91 percent against minimal opposition. Independent race ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting her substantial fundraising edge and broad party support. Republican nominee Brenton Awa, a state senator and minority leader, advanced unopposed but faces structural barriers in a district where Democrats have dominated for decades. Realistic shifts would require late-cycle events such as a national political realignment, significant candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout changes within the November 3 resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$64,569 Vol.
$64,569 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジル・トクダ（民主党）
96%
ブレントン・アワ（共和党）
5%
$64,569 Vol.
$64,569 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジル・トクダ（民主党）
$43,219 Vol.
96%
ブレントン・アワ（共和党）
$21,350 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jill Tokuda’s status as the two-term incumbent in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring her reelection. The district’s consistent Democratic performance, including a 17.5-point presidential margin in 2024 and a Partisan Voter Index of D+12, combines with Tokuda’s August primary victory exceeding 91 percent against minimal opposition. Independent race ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting her substantial fundraising edge and broad party support. Republican nominee Brenton Awa, a state senator and minority leader, advanced unopposed but faces structural barriers in a district where Democrats have dominated for decades. Realistic shifts would require late-cycle events such as a national political realignment, significant candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout changes within the November 3 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$64,569終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jill Tokuda’s status as the two-term incumbent in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring her reelection. The district’s consistent Democratic performance, including a 17.5-point presidential margin in 2024 and a Partisan Voter Index of D+12, combines with Tokuda’s August primary victory exceeding 91 percent against minimal opposition. Independent race ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting her substantial fundraising edge and broad party support. Republican nominee Brenton Awa, a state senator and minority leader, advanced unopposed but faces structural barriers in a district where Democrats have dominated for decades. Realistic shifts would require late-cycle events such as a national political realignment, significant candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout changes within the November 3 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$64,569終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Jill Tokuda’s status as the two-term incumbent in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring her reelection. The district’s consistent Democratic performance, including a 17.5-point presidential margin in 2024 and a Partisan Voter Index of D+12, combines with Tokuda’s August primary victory exceeding 91 percent against minimal opposition. Independent race ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting her substantial fundraising edge and broad party support. Republican nominee Brenton Awa, a state senator and minority leader, advanced unopposed but faces structural barriers in a district where Democrats have dominated for decades. Realistic shifts would require late-cycle events such as a national political realignment, significant candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout changes within the November 3 resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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