Recent successful release of Grok 4.7 on September 21 has strengthened trader confidence in xAI's execution cadence, following Elon Musk's September 14 roadmap that positions Grok 5—expected to train on massive Colossus II clusters with 6T–10T parameters—as the model potentially reaching AGI-level capabilities after 4.8 and 4.9 iterations. Multiple prior timeline slips from late 2025 through mid-2026 have created caution, yet Musk's direct statements and SpaceX data integration plans frame Grok 5 as a competitive leap against OpenAI and Anthropic models. Key near-term catalysts include 4.8 reinforcement learning completion and any updated benchmarks or training updates that could shift implied probabilities for a late-2026 launch.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$14,862 Vol.
2026/10/31
10月31日
5%
11月30日
16%
12月31日
48%
$14,862 Vol.
10月31日
$4,012 Vol.
5%
11月30日
$1,280 Vol.
16%
12月31日
$4,492 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent successful release of Grok 4.7 on September 21 has strengthened trader confidence in xAI's execution cadence, following Elon Musk's September 14 roadmap that positions Grok 5—expected to train on massive Colossus II clusters with 6T–10T parameters—as the model potentially reaching AGI-level capabilities after 4.8 and 4.9 iterations. Multiple prior timeline slips from late 2025 through mid-2026 have created caution, yet Musk's direct statements and SpaceX data integration plans frame Grok 5 as a competitive leap against OpenAI and Anthropic models. Key near-term catalysts include 4.8 reinforcement learning completion and any updated benchmarks or training updates that could shift implied probabilities for a late-2026 launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
音量
$14,862終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent successful release of Grok 4.7 on September 21 has strengthened trader confidence in xAI's execution cadence, following Elon Musk's September 14 roadmap that positions Grok 5—expected to train on massive Colossus II clusters with 6T–10T parameters—as the model potentially reaching AGI-level capabilities after 4.8 and 4.9 iterations. Multiple prior timeline slips from late 2025 through mid-2026 have created caution, yet Musk's direct statements and SpaceX data integration plans frame Grok 5 as a competitive leap against OpenAI and Anthropic models. Key near-term catalysts include 4.8 reinforcement learning completion and any updated benchmarks or training updates that could shift implied probabilities for a late-2026 launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$14,862終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070be91...Recent successful release of Grok 4.7 on September 21 has strengthened trader confidence in xAI's execution cadence, following Elon Musk's September 14 roadmap that positions Grok 5—expected to train on massive Colossus II clusters with 6T–10T parameters—as the model potentially reaching AGI-level capabilities after 4.8 and 4.9 iterations. Multiple prior timeline slips from late 2025 through mid-2026 have created caution, yet Musk's direct statements and SpaceX data integration plans frame Grok 5 as a competitive leap against OpenAI and Anthropic models. Key near-term catalysts include 4.8 reinforcement learning completion and any updated benchmarks or training updates that could shift implied probabilities for a late-2026 launch.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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