Recent consensus forecasts for the August 2026 Core CPI MoM print, scheduled for release September 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET, cluster tightly around 0.2%, following July’s matching 0.2% gain and 2.5% year-over-year rate. Analysts cite continued moderation in core goods prices, normalizing vehicle and recreation costs, and slightly softer shelter components—owners’ equivalent rent and primary rent expected near 0.22–0.23%—as key supports for the outcome. The July print’s alignment with expectations reinforced the gradual disinflation trajectory, with energy volatility excluded from the core measure. Polymarket’s 65.5% implied probability on 0.2% and 27.0% on 0.3% reflect aggregated trader positioning ahead of the data, which will inform near-term Fed rate-path assessments. No major intervening releases are expected to alter the baseline.