Traders assign a 95.2% probability to no U.S. annexation of territory in 2026 because recent diplomatic developments have channeled expansionist rhetoric into security agreements short of sovereignty transfer. The September 2026 Greenland deal with Denmark expanded U.S. basing rights and influence while leaving the territory under Danish control, resolving the highest-profile case without formal annexation. Domestic polling shows broad opposition to military acquisition, Congress has shown little appetite for enabling legislation, and international alliances constrain unilateral moves. Other proposals involving Canada, the Panama Canal, or conflict zones have remained at the level of statements or maps without triggering the treaty processes or congressional votes required for territorial incorporation. Late-year escalations in active conflicts or unexpected bilateral breakthroughs remain the primary variables that could still shift the outcome before December 31.