France’s minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faces significant hurdles in securing passage of the 2027 budget by year-end amid a fragmented National Assembly and upcoming presidential election cycle. The draft, due for council of ministers review on October 1 following September 30 deposit, incorporates €54 billion in spending restraint to target a 5% deficit after 2026’s projected 5.4% shortfall and record debt trajectory above 121% of GDP. Opposition from left-wing parties threatening censure, alongside Rassemblement National scrutiny of pension and welfare measures, echoes prior budget standoffs resolved only through special procedures. Market-implied odds reflect these political risks and the tight parliamentary timeline, with key votes scheduled through November.