Emmanuel Macron’s second and final term concludes in May 2027, with the presidential election scheduled for April, leaving little room for major new initiatives in the final months of 2026. Repeated past references to referendums under Article 11 on topics such as end-of-life care or institutional reforms have not produced action, amid a fragmented National Assembly and the president’s record-low approval ratings near 16 percent. Traders see no announced timetable, acute legislative deadlock, or political necessity that would prompt convening voters before year-end, especially with municipal elections in March and the campaign season approaching. A referendum could still occur if an unforeseen crisis or parliamentary impasse prompted Macron to seek direct public approval on a priority like social policy, though constitutional and timing constraints make such a shift improbable.