Utah's 4th Congressional District carries an R+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index following court-approved redistricting, positioning it as a solidly Republican seat according to ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Mike Kennedy secured the Republican nomination without primary opposition after Burgess Owens retired, while Jonny Larsen advanced as the Democratic nominee in an uncontested process. Kennedy's substantial fundraising edge and the district's consistent Republican performance in recent presidential cycles underpin trader consensus around his high probability of victory in the November 3 general election. A national Democratic wave, late scandals, or unusually high opposition turnout represent the main variables that could narrow the margin, though the district's structural lean limits realistic paths for an upset.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoUT-04 House Election Winner
UT-04 House Election Winner
$42,280 Vol.
$42,280 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mike Kennedy (R)
95%
Jonny Larsen (D)
4%
$42,280 Vol.
$42,280 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mike Kennedy (R)
$16,189 Vol.
95%
Jonny Larsen (D)
$26,091 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th Congressional District carries an R+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index following court-approved redistricting, positioning it as a solidly Republican seat according to ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Mike Kennedy secured the Republican nomination without primary opposition after Burgess Owens retired, while Jonny Larsen advanced as the Democratic nominee in an uncontested process. Kennedy's substantial fundraising edge and the district's consistent Republican performance in recent presidential cycles underpin trader consensus around his high probability of victory in the November 3 general election. A national Democratic wave, late scandals, or unusually high opposition turnout represent the main variables that could narrow the margin, though the district's structural lean limits realistic paths for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$42,280Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th Congressional District carries an R+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index following court-approved redistricting, positioning it as a solidly Republican seat according to ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Mike Kennedy secured the Republican nomination without primary opposition after Burgess Owens retired, while Jonny Larsen advanced as the Democratic nominee in an uncontested process. Kennedy's substantial fundraising edge and the district's consistent Republican performance in recent presidential cycles underpin trader consensus around his high probability of victory in the November 3 general election. A national Democratic wave, late scandals, or unusually high opposition turnout represent the main variables that could narrow the margin, though the district's structural lean limits realistic paths for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,280Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 4th Congressional District carries an R+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index following court-approved redistricting, positioning it as a solidly Republican seat according to ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Mike Kennedy secured the Republican nomination without primary opposition after Burgess Owens retired, while Jonny Larsen advanced as the Democratic nominee in an uncontested process. Kennedy's substantial fundraising edge and the district's consistent Republican performance in recent presidential cycles underpin trader consensus around his high probability of victory in the November 3 general election. A national Democratic wave, late scandals, or unusually high opposition turnout represent the main variables that could narrow the margin, though the district's structural lean limits realistic paths for an upset.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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