Ongoing bilateral mechanisms established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade, have advanced negotiations for reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side, with public input collected on non-sensitive products. The one-year trade truce from the October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement, which caps tariff levels and suspends certain measures until November 2026, provides a structured timeline. Additional catalysts include China's commitments to agricultural purchases and market access, U.S. Section 301 tariff replacements staying within agreed bounds, and upcoming leader-level talks at the September 2026 Xi visit, November APEC summit, and December G20. These developments have shaped trader consensus around a high likelihood of further tariff accord by year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
89% probabilità
$245,647 Vol.
$245,647 Vol.
31 dic 2026
89% probabilità
$245,647 Vol.
$245,647 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral mechanisms established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade, have advanced negotiations for reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side, with public input collected on non-sensitive products. The one-year trade truce from the October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement, which caps tariff levels and suspends certain measures until November 2026, provides a structured timeline. Additional catalysts include China's commitments to agricultural purchases and market access, U.S. Section 301 tariff replacements staying within agreed bounds, and upcoming leader-level talks at the September 2026 Xi visit, November APEC summit, and December G20. These developments have shaped trader consensus around a high likelihood of further tariff accord by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$245,647Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral mechanisms established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade, have advanced negotiations for reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side, with public input collected on non-sensitive products. The one-year trade truce from the October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement, which caps tariff levels and suspends certain measures until November 2026, provides a structured timeline. Additional catalysts include China's commitments to agricultural purchases and market access, U.S. Section 301 tariff replacements staying within agreed bounds, and upcoming leader-level talks at the September 2026 Xi visit, November APEC summit, and December G20. These developments have shaped trader consensus around a high likelihood of further tariff accord by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$245,647Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Ongoing bilateral mechanisms established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade, have advanced negotiations for reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side, with public input collected on non-sensitive products. The one-year trade truce from the October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement, which caps tariff levels and suspends certain measures until November 2026, provides a structured timeline. Additional catalysts include China's commitments to agricultural purchases and market access, U.S. Section 301 tariff replacements staying within agreed bounds, and upcoming leader-level talks at the September 2026 Xi visit, November APEC summit, and December G20. These developments have shaped trader consensus around a high likelihood of further tariff accord by year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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