The absence of any congressional legislation authorizing conscription, combined with the longstanding all-volunteer force policy in place since 1973, underpins trader consensus that no draft will be authorized in 2026. Automatic Selective Service registration changes scheduled for December under the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act represent only an administrative update using federal data sources, not activation of induction authority. Officials have stated a draft is not part of current plans amid the Iran ceasefire and related operations. Authorization would require separate congressional passage and presidential approval, steps absent from the legislative calendar. An extreme escalation creating sustained volunteer shortfalls beyond historical precedents could theoretically prompt such action before year-end, though no indicators point in that direction.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
3% probabilità
$524,873 Vol.
$524,873 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
3% probabilità
$524,873 Vol.
$524,873 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any congressional legislation authorizing conscription, combined with the longstanding all-volunteer force policy in place since 1973, underpins trader consensus that no draft will be authorized in 2026. Automatic Selective Service registration changes scheduled for December under the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act represent only an administrative update using federal data sources, not activation of induction authority. Officials have stated a draft is not part of current plans amid the Iran ceasefire and related operations. Authorization would require separate congressional passage and presidential approval, steps absent from the legislative calendar. An extreme escalation creating sustained volunteer shortfalls beyond historical precedents could theoretically prompt such action before year-end, though no indicators point in that direction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$524,873Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any congressional legislation authorizing conscription, combined with the longstanding all-volunteer force policy in place since 1973, underpins trader consensus that no draft will be authorized in 2026. Automatic Selective Service registration changes scheduled for December under the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act represent only an administrative update using federal data sources, not activation of induction authority. Officials have stated a draft is not part of current plans amid the Iran ceasefire and related operations. Authorization would require separate congressional passage and presidential approval, steps absent from the legislative calendar. An extreme escalation creating sustained volunteer shortfalls beyond historical precedents could theoretically prompt such action before year-end, though no indicators point in that direction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$524,873Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The absence of any congressional legislation authorizing conscription, combined with the longstanding all-volunteer force policy in place since 1973, underpins trader consensus that no draft will be authorized in 2026. Automatic Selective Service registration changes scheduled for December under the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act represent only an administrative update using federal data sources, not activation of induction authority. Officials have stated a draft is not part of current plans amid the Iran ceasefire and related operations. Authorization would require separate congressional passage and presidential approval, steps absent from the legislative calendar. An extreme escalation creating sustained volunteer shortfalls beyond historical precedents could theoretically prompt such action before year-end, though no indicators point in that direction.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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