Trader consensus favoring "No" at 63.5% stems primarily from persistent technical hurdles in V3 Starship's full tower-catch reusability for both Super Heavy booster and upper stage before year-end 2026. Flight 13 in July achieved Starlink V3 deployment, in-space Raptor relight, and controlled ship splashdown with improved heat shield data, yet the booster failed its soft landing, underscoring recovery challenges. Flight 14, targeted for September 18 orbital insertion with production satellites, prioritizes trajectory and payload goals over confirmed Mechazilla catches. While Musk has projected upper-stage reflights within months and booster reuse validation later, V3 refinements in Raptor 3 engines, avionics, and propellant systems still require multiple iterations, regulatory approvals, and demonstrated rapid turnarounds that historical patterns suggest will extend into 2027.