Incumbent Democrat Summer Lee holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district against Republican James Hayes, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s recent voting patterns, including Lee’s primary performance and consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, underpin trader expectations for a mid-20s percentage-point margin of victory. Limited campaign developments or national political shifts specific to the district in recent weeks have kept probabilities concentrated in the 20-30 percent margin buckets, reflecting the absence of major polling movement or external catalysts. A late surge in Republican turnout or unexpected national headwinds could narrow the outcome, while sustained Democratic advantages would likely preserve the current range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDemocratico 25-30% 34%
Democratico 20-25% 31%
Democratico 15-20% 15%
Democratico 30-35% 10.7%
$10,026 Vol.
$10,026 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratico 40%+
1%
Democratico 35-40%
4%
Democratico 30-35%
11%
Democratico 25-30%
34%
Democratico 20-25%
31%
Democratico 15-20%
15%
Democratico 10-15%
7%
Democratico 0-10%
1%
Vittoria Repubblicana
<1%
Democratico 25-30% 34%
Democratico 20-25% 31%
Democratico 15-20% 15%
Democratico 30-35% 10.7%
$10,026 Vol.
$10,026 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratico 40%+
$688 Vol.
1%
Democratico 35-40%
$750 Vol.
4%
Democratico 30-35%
$937 Vol.
11%
Democratico 25-30%
$2,459 Vol.
34%
Democratico 20-25%
$1,621 Vol.
31%
Democratico 15-20%
$1,333 Vol.
15%
Democratico 10-15%
$1,030 Vol.
7%
Democratico 0-10%
$708 Vol.
1%
Vittoria Repubblicana
$499 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 PA-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Summer Lee holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district against Republican James Hayes, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s recent voting patterns, including Lee’s primary performance and consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, underpin trader expectations for a mid-20s percentage-point margin of victory. Limited campaign developments or national political shifts specific to the district in recent weeks have kept probabilities concentrated in the 20-30 percent margin buckets, reflecting the absence of major polling movement or external catalysts. A late surge in Republican turnout or unexpected national headwinds could narrow the outcome, while sustained Democratic advantages would likely preserve the current range.
The 2026 PA-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 11, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$10,026Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 2:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 PA-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Summer Lee holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district against Republican James Hayes, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s recent voting patterns, including Lee’s primary performance and consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, underpin trader expectations for a mid-20s percentage-point margin of victory. Limited campaign developments or national political shifts specific to the district in recent weeks have kept probabilities concentrated in the 20-30 percent margin buckets, reflecting the absence of major polling movement or external catalysts. A late surge in Republican turnout or unexpected national headwinds could narrow the outcome, while sustained Democratic advantages would likely preserve the current range.
The 2026 PA-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,026Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 2:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Summer Lee holds a strong position in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district against Republican James Hayes, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s recent voting patterns, including Lee’s primary performance and consistent Democratic lean in federal contests, underpin trader expectations for a mid-20s percentage-point margin of victory. Limited campaign developments or national political shifts specific to the district in recent weeks have kept probabilities concentrated in the 20-30 percent margin buckets, reflecting the absence of major polling movement or external catalysts. A late surge in Republican turnout or unexpected national headwinds could narrow the outcome, while sustained Democratic advantages would likely preserve the current range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
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Il candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni per la Camera del PA-06 del 2026 con un margine del 20%-25%?
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Il candidato del Partito Repubblicano vincerà le elezioni della Camera del 2026 nel distretto PA-11 con uno scarto del 15%-20%?
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