Recent incidents on September 3, 4, 8, and 9 have already produced multiple days of degraded performance and partial outages for ChatGPT conversations, file uploads, image generation, and Codex features, establishing a pattern of recurring infrastructure strain amid high usage and preparations for upcoming model releases like GPT-6 Astra. This history of frequent minor degradations—hundreds logged since early 2025—drives the market's 36% implied probability for 5+ outage days, as traders anticipate continued scaling challenges and load spikes through the remainder of September. With over 20 days left, even brief events could push totals higher, while the 21.5% odds on exactly four reflect expectations that mitigation efforts may limit further disruptions.