Meta’s internal codename for its next frontier large language model after Muse Spark, Watermelon remains in training as of early September 2026 but has drawn trader attention from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang’s July statements that the model already matches OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified internal benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. The September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3, with notable gains in coding and agentic capabilities, reinforced Meta’s rapid iteration pace and $125–145 billion infrastructure spend, yet Wang offered no firm Watermelon timeline beyond calling it “extremely competitive.” Market odds reflect uncertainty around verification of those benchmarks, potential slippage in an October target for public or API availability, and competition from faster-moving rivals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl modello "Watermelon" di Meta rilasciato da...?
Il modello "Watermelon" di Meta rilasciato da...?
$12,498 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre
5%
31 ottobre
74%
30 novembre
93%
$12,498 Vol.
30 settembre
$3,395 Vol.
5%
31 ottobre
$6,384 Vol.
74%
30 novembre
$2,719 Vol.
93%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s internal codename for its next frontier large language model after Muse Spark, Watermelon remains in training as of early September 2026 but has drawn trader attention from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang’s July statements that the model already matches OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified internal benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. The September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3, with notable gains in coding and agentic capabilities, reinforced Meta’s rapid iteration pace and $125–145 billion infrastructure spend, yet Wang offered no firm Watermelon timeline beyond calling it “extremely competitive.” Market odds reflect uncertainty around verification of those benchmarks, potential slippage in an October target for public or API availability, and competition from faster-moving rivals.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$12,498Data di fine
30 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s internal codename for its next frontier large language model after Muse Spark, Watermelon remains in training as of early September 2026 but has drawn trader attention from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang’s July statements that the model already matches OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified internal benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. The September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3, with notable gains in coding and agentic capabilities, reinforced Meta’s rapid iteration pace and $125–145 billion infrastructure spend, yet Wang offered no firm Watermelon timeline beyond calling it “extremely competitive.” Market odds reflect uncertainty around verification of those benchmarks, potential slippage in an October target for public or API availability, and competition from faster-moving rivals.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,498Data di fine
30 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Meta’s internal codename for its next frontier large language model after Muse Spark, Watermelon remains in training as of early September 2026 but has drawn trader attention from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang’s July statements that the model already matches OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified internal benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. The September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3, with notable gains in coding and agentic capabilities, reinforced Meta’s rapid iteration pace and $125–145 billion infrastructure spend, yet Wang offered no firm Watermelon timeline beyond calling it “extremely competitive.” Market odds reflect uncertainty around verification of those benchmarks, potential slippage in an October target for public or API availability, and competition from faster-moving rivals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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