Recent polling averages place Labour at roughly 29% party vote, projecting around 36 seats under MMP, which aligns with trader emphasis on the 35-39 range as the most probable outcome. Volatility in the major-party contest—National and Labour trading narrow leads amid record-low combined support—combined with rising minor-party shares for the Greens, NZ First, ACT and Opportunity keeps Labour’s seat total sensitive to small shifts in preference flows and electorate results. The six-week campaign window to the 7 November election includes further polling releases and potential late swings in undecided voters, factors that sustain the broad distribution of probabilities across the 30-44 seat bands.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
35-39 35%
40-44 20%
30-34 19.2%
<30 11.1%
$23,807 Vol.
$23,807 Vol.
6 nov 2026
<30
19%
30-34
17%
35-39
35%
40-44
20%
45-49
6%
50-54
2%
55+
7%
35-39 35%
40-44 20%
30-34 19.2%
<30 11.1%
$23,807 Vol.
$23,807 Vol.
6 nov 2026
<30
$930 Vol.
19%
30-34
$3,171 Vol.
17%
35-39
$7,259 Vol.
35%
40-44
$2,833 Vol.
20%
45-49
$7,385 Vol.
6%
50-54
$992 Vol.
2%
55+
$1,237 Vol.
7%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place Labour at roughly 29% party vote, projecting around 36 seats under MMP, which aligns with trader emphasis on the 35-39 range as the most probable outcome. Volatility in the major-party contest—National and Labour trading narrow leads amid record-low combined support—combined with rising minor-party shares for the Greens, NZ First, ACT and Opportunity keeps Labour’s seat total sensitive to small shifts in preference flows and electorate results. The six-week campaign window to the 7 November election includes further polling releases and potential late swings in undecided voters, factors that sustain the broad distribution of probabilities across the 30-44 seat bands.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$23,807Data di fine
7 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place Labour at roughly 29% party vote, projecting around 36 seats under MMP, which aligns with trader emphasis on the 35-39 range as the most probable outcome. Volatility in the major-party contest—National and Labour trading narrow leads amid record-low combined support—combined with rising minor-party shares for the Greens, NZ First, ACT and Opportunity keeps Labour’s seat total sensitive to small shifts in preference flows and electorate results. The six-week campaign window to the 7 November election includes further polling releases and potential late swings in undecided voters, factors that sustain the broad distribution of probabilities across the 30-44 seat bands.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$23,807Data di fine
7 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place Labour at roughly 29% party vote, projecting around 36 seats under MMP, which aligns with trader emphasis on the 35-39 range as the most probable outcome. Volatility in the major-party contest—National and Labour trading narrow leads amid record-low combined support—combined with rising minor-party shares for the Greens, NZ First, ACT and Opportunity keeps Labour’s seat total sensitive to small shifts in preference flows and electorate results. The six-week campaign window to the 7 November election includes further polling releases and potential late swings in undecided voters, factors that sustain the broad distribution of probabilities across the 30-44 seat bands.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
38%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
49%
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