**Trader consensus heavily favors no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 at 93% implied probability, reflecting the extreme rarity of such colossal events and the absence of any qualifying activity through late September.** VEI 6+ eruptions, which eject at least 10 km³ of material and can reach stratospheric heights exceeding 30 km, occur globally on timescales of roughly 50–100 years on average, with the most recent being Pinatubo in 1991. Ongoing 2026 activity at volcanoes like Krakatau (estimated VEI ~4), Kīlauea, Sangay, and Semeru remains well below this threshold, and official monitoring from USGS and similar agencies shows no rapid escalation indicators. With only three months remaining, the short window further reduces odds. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen intensification at a monitored system or a new caldera-forming event, though current seismic, deformation, and gas data provide no supporting signals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGrande eruzione vulcanica (vei ≥6) nel 2026?
Grande eruzione vulcanica (vei ≥6) nel 2026?
7% probabilità
$146,888 Vol.
$146,888 Vol.
31 mar 2027
7% probabilità
$146,888 Vol.
$146,888 Vol.
31 mar 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 at 93% implied probability, reflecting the extreme rarity of such colossal events and the absence of any qualifying activity through late September.** VEI 6+ eruptions, which eject at least 10 km³ of material and can reach stratospheric heights exceeding 30 km, occur globally on timescales of roughly 50–100 years on average, with the most recent being Pinatubo in 1991. Ongoing 2026 activity at volcanoes like Krakatau (estimated VEI ~4), Kīlauea, Sangay, and Semeru remains well below this threshold, and official monitoring from USGS and similar agencies shows no rapid escalation indicators. With only three months remaining, the short window further reduces odds. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen intensification at a monitored system or a new caldera-forming event, though current seismic, deformation, and gas data provide no supporting signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$146,888Data di fine
1 apr 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 at 93% implied probability, reflecting the extreme rarity of such colossal events and the absence of any qualifying activity through late September.** VEI 6+ eruptions, which eject at least 10 km³ of material and can reach stratospheric heights exceeding 30 km, occur globally on timescales of roughly 50–100 years on average, with the most recent being Pinatubo in 1991. Ongoing 2026 activity at volcanoes like Krakatau (estimated VEI ~4), Kīlauea, Sangay, and Semeru remains well below this threshold, and official monitoring from USGS and similar agencies shows no rapid escalation indicators. With only three months remaining, the short window further reduces odds. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen intensification at a monitored system or a new caldera-forming event, though current seismic, deformation, and gas data provide no supporting signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$146,888Data di fine
1 apr 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 at 93% implied probability, reflecting the extreme rarity of such colossal events and the absence of any qualifying activity through late September.** VEI 6+ eruptions, which eject at least 10 km³ of material and can reach stratospheric heights exceeding 30 km, occur globally on timescales of roughly 50–100 years on average, with the most recent being Pinatubo in 1991. Ongoing 2026 activity at volcanoes like Krakatau (estimated VEI ~4), Kīlauea, Sangay, and Semeru remains well below this threshold, and official monitoring from USGS and similar agencies shows no rapid escalation indicators. With only three months remaining, the short window further reduces odds. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen intensification at a monitored system or a new caldera-forming event, though current seismic, deformation, and gas data provide no supporting signals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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