President Lee Jae-myung’s constitutional immunity under Article 84 has suspended all five pending criminal cases, including election-law violations, development-project corruption, and related allegations, preventing prosecution or arrest while he holds office. Courts have postponed trials citing this protection, and recent police dismissals of complaints for lack of evidence have reinforced procedural barriers. The ruling Democratic Party has advanced legislative efforts for special-counsel review or indictment withdrawals, framing prior cases as politically motivated, while the justice minister nominee rejected any direct intervention to cancel charges. With Lee actively exercising executive authority—including state visits and policy initiatives—through September 2026 and no qualifying events triggering arrest, trader consensus prices the likelihood of detention before December 31, 2026, at just 6.8%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLee Jae-myung arrestato prima del 2027?
Lee Jae-myung arrestato prima del 2027?
Sì
7% probabilità
$546,611 Vol.
$546,611 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
7% probabilità
$546,611 Vol.
$546,611 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Lee Jae-myung’s constitutional immunity under Article 84 has suspended all five pending criminal cases, including election-law violations, development-project corruption, and related allegations, preventing prosecution or arrest while he holds office. Courts have postponed trials citing this protection, and recent police dismissals of complaints for lack of evidence have reinforced procedural barriers. The ruling Democratic Party has advanced legislative efforts for special-counsel review or indictment withdrawals, framing prior cases as politically motivated, while the justice minister nominee rejected any direct intervention to cancel charges. With Lee actively exercising executive authority—including state visits and policy initiatives—through September 2026 and no qualifying events triggering arrest, trader consensus prices the likelihood of detention before December 31, 2026, at just 6.8%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$546,611Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Lee Jae-myung’s constitutional immunity under Article 84 has suspended all five pending criminal cases, including election-law violations, development-project corruption, and related allegations, preventing prosecution or arrest while he holds office. Courts have postponed trials citing this protection, and recent police dismissals of complaints for lack of evidence have reinforced procedural barriers. The ruling Democratic Party has advanced legislative efforts for special-counsel review or indictment withdrawals, framing prior cases as politically motivated, while the justice minister nominee rejected any direct intervention to cancel charges. With Lee actively exercising executive authority—including state visits and policy initiatives—through September 2026 and no qualifying events triggering arrest, trader consensus prices the likelihood of detention before December 31, 2026, at just 6.8%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$546,611Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...President Lee Jae-myung’s constitutional immunity under Article 84 has suspended all five pending criminal cases, including election-law violations, development-project corruption, and related allegations, preventing prosecution or arrest while he holds office. Courts have postponed trials citing this protection, and recent police dismissals of complaints for lack of evidence have reinforced procedural barriers. The ruling Democratic Party has advanced legislative efforts for special-counsel review or indictment withdrawals, framing prior cases as politically motivated, while the justice minister nominee rejected any direct intervention to cancel charges. With Lee actively exercising executive authority—including state visits and policy initiatives—through September 2026 and no qualifying events triggering arrest, trader consensus prices the likelihood of detention before December 31, 2026, at just 6.8%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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