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icon for Quanti seggi vincerà New People (NL) alle prossime elezioni legislative russe?
Politica·Russia

Quanti seggi vincerà New People (NL) alle prossime elezioni legislative russe?

icon for Quanti seggi vincerà New People (NL) alle prossime elezioni legislative russe?
Politica·Russia

Quanti seggi vincerà New People (NL) alle prossime elezioni legislative russe?

<35 94%

35–44 5.7%

45–54 <1%

55–64 <1%

Polymarket

$121,421 Vol.

<35 94%

35–44 5.7%

45–54 <1%

55–64 <1%

Polymarket

$121,421 Vol.

<35

$31,164 Vol.

94%

35–44

$25,910 Vol.

6%

45–54

$16,195 Vol.

1%

55–64

$13,480 Vol.

1%

65–74

$13,231 Vol.

<1%

75–84

$8,273 Vol.

<1%

85+

$13,167 Vol.

<1%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.New People (NL) operates as a Kremlin-aligned systemic opposition party in Russia's mixed-member proportional electoral system, where half the 450 Duma seats come from party-list voting and half from single-member districts. Recent polling from state-affiliated firms places its support in the 8–11% range for the party list, consistent with modest proportional gains, while independent surveys show somewhat higher figures around 10–17% among decided voters. Its current 15-seat faction and limited single-member district infrastructure constrain upside potential. The exclusion of Yabloko from the ballot offers a modest tailwind by redirecting some protest votes, yet administrative controls and competition from larger systemic parties such as the CPRF and LDPR limit broader breakthroughs. Trader consensus on fewer than 35 seats reflects these structural barriers, though stronger-than-expected single-member results or late shifts in turnout could still alter the final allocation.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$121,421
Data di fine
20 set 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.New People (NL) operates as a Kremlin-aligned systemic opposition party in Russia's mixed-member proportional electoral system, where half the 450 Duma seats come from party-list voting and half from single-member districts. Recent polling from state-affiliated firms places its support in the 8–11% range for the party list, consistent with modest proportional gains, while independent surveys show somewhat higher figures around 10–17% among decided voters. Its current 15-seat faction and limited single-member district infrastructure constrain upside potential. The exclusion of Yabloko from the ballot offers a modest tailwind by redirecting some protest votes, yet administrative controls and competition from larger systemic parties such as the CPRF and LDPR limit broader breakthroughs. Trader consensus on fewer than 35 seats reflects these structural barriers, though stronger-than-expected single-member results or late shifts in turnout could still alter the final allocation.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$121,421
Data di fine
20 set 2026
Mercato aperto
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...

Correlati

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Il partito Russia Unita vincerà tra 340 e 354 seggi nelle prossime elezioni della Duma di Stato russa?

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Il Partito Liberal Democratico di Russia (LDPR) otterrà meno di 45 seggi nelle prossime elezioni della Duma di Stato russa?

95%
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Domande frequenti

"Quanti seggi vincerà New People (NL) alle prossime elezioni legislative russe?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 7 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "<35" a 94%, seguito da "35–44" a 6%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 94¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 94% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Quanti seggi vincerà New People (NL) alle prossime elezioni legislative russe?" ha generato $121.4K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Sep 1, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Quanti seggi vincerà New People (NL) alle prossime elezioni legislative russe?", esplora i 7 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Quanti seggi vincerà New People (NL) alle prossime elezioni legislative russe?" è "<35" a 94%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 94% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "35–44" a 6%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Quanti seggi vincerà New People (NL) alle prossime elezioni legislative russe?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.