The 10-year Treasury yield has recently traded near 5%, up sharply from roughly 4.06% a year earlier, reflecting resilient U.S. growth, a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, and elevated term premiums amid inflation uncertainty. Heavy fiscal deficits, record Treasury issuance, and AI-driven corporate borrowing have increased long-duration supply while competing for investor capital, supporting higher real yields. Geopolitical tensions linked to energy prices have further influenced breakeven inflation. Market-implied odds now embed limited near-term easing, with the Fed funds rate path versus official guidance remaining a key swing factor. Upcoming CPI releases, employment data, and FOMC communications through year-end will shape whether yields can sustainably decline before 2027 or remain range-bound near current levels.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$286,092 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sotto il 3,9%
3%
Sotto il 3,8%
3%
Sotto il 3,7%
3%
Sotto il 3,6%
3%
Sotto il 3,5%
2%
Sotto il 3,0%
1%
Sotto il 2,0%
2%
Sotto l'1,0%
1%
$286,092 Vol.
Sotto il 3,9%
$54,748 Vol.
3%
Sotto il 3,8%
$62,740 Vol.
3%
Sotto il 3,7%
$35,630 Vol.
3%
Sotto il 3,6%
$8,903 Vol.
3%
Sotto il 3,5%
$43,095 Vol.
2%
Sotto il 3,0%
$7,958 Vol.
1%
Sotto il 2,0%
$564 Vol.
2%
Sotto l'1,0%
$40,696 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has recently traded near 5%, up sharply from roughly 4.06% a year earlier, reflecting resilient U.S. growth, a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, and elevated term premiums amid inflation uncertainty. Heavy fiscal deficits, record Treasury issuance, and AI-driven corporate borrowing have increased long-duration supply while competing for investor capital, supporting higher real yields. Geopolitical tensions linked to energy prices have further influenced breakeven inflation. Market-implied odds now embed limited near-term easing, with the Fed funds rate path versus official guidance remaining a key swing factor. Upcoming CPI releases, employment data, and FOMC communications through year-end will shape whether yields can sustainably decline before 2027 or remain range-bound near current levels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Volume
$286,092Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has recently traded near 5%, up sharply from roughly 4.06% a year earlier, reflecting resilient U.S. growth, a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, and elevated term premiums amid inflation uncertainty. Heavy fiscal deficits, record Treasury issuance, and AI-driven corporate borrowing have increased long-duration supply while competing for investor capital, supporting higher real yields. Geopolitical tensions linked to energy prices have further influenced breakeven inflation. Market-implied odds now embed limited near-term easing, with the Fed funds rate path versus official guidance remaining a key swing factor. Upcoming CPI releases, employment data, and FOMC communications through year-end will shape whether yields can sustainably decline before 2027 or remain range-bound near current levels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$286,092Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield has recently traded near 5%, up sharply from roughly 4.06% a year earlier, reflecting resilient U.S. growth, a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, and elevated term premiums amid inflation uncertainty. Heavy fiscal deficits, record Treasury issuance, and AI-driven corporate borrowing have increased long-duration supply while competing for investor capital, supporting higher real yields. Geopolitical tensions linked to energy prices have further influenced breakeven inflation. Market-implied odds now embed limited near-term easing, with the Fed funds rate path versus official guidance remaining a key swing factor. Upcoming CPI releases, employment data, and FOMC communications through year-end will shape whether yields can sustainably decline before 2027 or remain range-bound near current levels.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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