Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, combined with active preparations for a mid-October public debut, underpins the 96.4% market-implied odds favoring it to reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company is finalizing a $15 billion credit facility and targeting a late-September prospectus release ahead of investor marketing, positioning it well ahead in the regulatory and underwriting timeline. OpenAI filed days later and has since shifted internal expectations toward 2027, citing CEO Sam Altman’s $1 trillion valuation target, heavy infrastructure commitments, and caution after SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility. While Anthropic’s lead appears decisive, realistic variables such as extended SEC review, market turbulence, or a sudden acceleration by OpenAI could still alter sequencing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAnthropic
96% probabilità
$340,096 Vol.
$340,096 Vol.
30 dic 2027
Anthropic
96% probabilità
$340,096 Vol.
$340,096 Vol.
30 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, combined with active preparations for a mid-October public debut, underpins the 96.4% market-implied odds favoring it to reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company is finalizing a $15 billion credit facility and targeting a late-September prospectus release ahead of investor marketing, positioning it well ahead in the regulatory and underwriting timeline. OpenAI filed days later and has since shifted internal expectations toward 2027, citing CEO Sam Altman’s $1 trillion valuation target, heavy infrastructure commitments, and caution after SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility. While Anthropic’s lead appears decisive, realistic variables such as extended SEC review, market turbulence, or a sudden acceleration by OpenAI could still alter sequencing.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$340,096Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, combined with active preparations for a mid-October public debut, underpins the 96.4% market-implied odds favoring it to reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company is finalizing a $15 billion credit facility and targeting a late-September prospectus release ahead of investor marketing, positioning it well ahead in the regulatory and underwriting timeline. OpenAI filed days later and has since shifted internal expectations toward 2027, citing CEO Sam Altman’s $1 trillion valuation target, heavy infrastructure commitments, and caution after SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility. While Anthropic’s lead appears decisive, realistic variables such as extended SEC review, market turbulence, or a sudden acceleration by OpenAI could still alter sequencing.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$340,096Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, combined with active preparations for a mid-October public debut, underpins the 96.4% market-implied odds favoring it to reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company is finalizing a $15 billion credit facility and targeting a late-September prospectus release ahead of investor marketing, positioning it well ahead in the regulatory and underwriting timeline. OpenAI filed days later and has since shifted internal expectations toward 2027, citing CEO Sam Altman’s $1 trillion valuation target, heavy infrastructure commitments, and caution after SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility. While Anthropic’s lead appears decisive, realistic variables such as extended SEC review, market turbulence, or a sudden acceleration by OpenAI could still alter sequencing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
L'offerta pubblica iniziale di Anthropic avverrà nell'ottobre 2026 (ET)?
59%
Sì
Anthropic o OpenAI: quale avrà una capitalizzazione di mercato di chiusura IPO più alta?
68%
Anthropic
La capitalizzazione di mercato di Anthropic sarà pari o superiore a 600 miliardi di dollari alla chiusura del mercato il giorno dell’IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2027?
96%
Sì
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