The upcoming 6 December 2026 legislative elections occur under a military-led transitional framework following the November 2025 coup that annulled prior results. A August 2026 constitutional referendum, approved by roughly 70 percent amid opposition boycott, expanded presidential authority to appoint ministers and dissolve parliament while shrinking the assembly from 102 to 65 seats and consolidating constituencies. These changes, alongside a recent junta order requiring parties to relocate offices, have fragmented the field among coalitions such as Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” and smaller lists including FREPASNA. Proportional representation, limited recent polling data, and uncertainty over opposition participation and junta adherence to the transition timetable keep implied probabilities closely clustered, with separation likely hinging on candidate registration, campaign financing, and any late diplomatic signals from ECOWAS.