Persistent energy price shocks from Middle East tensions have kept euro area headline inflation near 3.3% as of August 2026, well above the ECB’s 2% target, while core measures and growth data remain resilient. This backdrop has driven the ECB’s deposit facility rate to 2.25% after the June hike, with markets and analysts pricing in a further 25-basis-point increase to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting and limited scope for reversal before year-end. Staff projections show inflation averaging 3.0% for 2026 and only reaching target in late 2027, reinforcing trader consensus that a 2026 easing is unlikely. A rapid de-escalation in geopolitics or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier cuts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
5% probabilità
$32,739 Vol.
$32,739 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
$32,739 Vol.
$32,739 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent energy price shocks from Middle East tensions have kept euro area headline inflation near 3.3% as of August 2026, well above the ECB’s 2% target, while core measures and growth data remain resilient. This backdrop has driven the ECB’s deposit facility rate to 2.25% after the June hike, with markets and analysts pricing in a further 25-basis-point increase to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting and limited scope for reversal before year-end. Staff projections show inflation averaging 3.0% for 2026 and only reaching target in late 2027, reinforcing trader consensus that a 2026 easing is unlikely. A rapid de-escalation in geopolitics or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier cuts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$32,739Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent energy price shocks from Middle East tensions have kept euro area headline inflation near 3.3% as of August 2026, well above the ECB’s 2% target, while core measures and growth data remain resilient. This backdrop has driven the ECB’s deposit facility rate to 2.25% after the June hike, with markets and analysts pricing in a further 25-basis-point increase to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting and limited scope for reversal before year-end. Staff projections show inflation averaging 3.0% for 2026 and only reaching target in late 2027, reinforcing trader consensus that a 2026 easing is unlikely. A rapid de-escalation in geopolitics or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier cuts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$32,739Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Persistent energy price shocks from Middle East tensions have kept euro area headline inflation near 3.3% as of August 2026, well above the ECB’s 2% target, while core measures and growth data remain resilient. This backdrop has driven the ECB’s deposit facility rate to 2.25% after the June hike, with markets and analysts pricing in a further 25-basis-point increase to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting and limited scope for reversal before year-end. Staff projections show inflation averaging 3.0% for 2026 and only reaching target in late 2027, reinforcing trader consensus that a 2026 easing is unlikely. A rapid de-escalation in geopolitics or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier cuts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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