Mike Derry holds a commanding 95% implied probability in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market because the riding has consistently favored the United Conservative Party, which captured 56% in the prior general election. Derry secured the UCP nomination in June after defeating a sitting city councillor, gaining endorsement from Premier Danielle Smith and positioning the party to maintain its suburban Calgary base ahead of the September 14 vote. Advance polls opened this week with limited reported shifts in sentiment. The main challenger, NDP candidate Kyle Campbell, faces structural headwinds in a historically conservative district. Late developments such as unusually low turnout, unforeseen candidate controversies, or coordinated opposition surges could narrow the margin, though current trader pricing indicates these remain low-probability outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMike Derry 95%
Kyle Campbell 3.9%
John Roggeveen <1%
Kyle Joseph <1%
$21,105 Vol.
$21,105 Vol.
Mike Derry
95%
Kyle Campbell
4%
John Roggeveen
<1%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
Mike Derry 95%
Kyle Campbell 3.9%
John Roggeveen <1%
Kyle Joseph <1%
$21,105 Vol.
$21,105 Vol.
Mike Derry
95%
Kyle Campbell
4%
John Roggeveen
<1%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Mike Derry holds a commanding 95% implied probability in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market because the riding has consistently favored the United Conservative Party, which captured 56% in the prior general election. Derry secured the UCP nomination in June after defeating a sitting city councillor, gaining endorsement from Premier Danielle Smith and positioning the party to maintain its suburban Calgary base ahead of the September 14 vote. Advance polls opened this week with limited reported shifts in sentiment. The main challenger, NDP candidate Kyle Campbell, faces structural headwinds in a historically conservative district. Late developments such as unusually low turnout, unforeseen candidate controversies, or coordinated opposition surges could narrow the margin, though current trader pricing indicates these remain low-probability outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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