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icon for Vincitore del primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile
Politica·Brasile

Vincitore del primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile

icon for Vincitore del primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile
Politica·Brasile

Vincitore del primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile

Lula 69%

Flavio Bolsonaro 30%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Zema <1%

Polymarket

$142,402 Vol.

Lula 69%

Flavio Bolsonaro 30%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Zema <1%

Polymarket

$142,402 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$63,642 Vol.

69%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$59,653 Vol.

30%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$4,126 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$546 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$4,462 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$1,189 Vol.

<1%

icon for Scrittore Augusto Cury

Scrittore Augusto Cury

$6,851 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$477 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$288 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$296 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$296 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinario Wilson Grassi

Veterinario Wilson Grassi

$316 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$259 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a consistent lead in first-round polling aggregates ahead of the October 4 vote, typically capturing 38-44% support against Flávio Bolsonaro's 34-42% range, with fragmented right-wing alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury each in the low single digits. This distribution positions the incumbent Workers' Party candidate as the clear frontrunner for a plurality, consistent with trader pricing that assigns him the highest implied probability while pricing Bolsonaro as the primary challenger. Recent surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and PoderData through mid-September show stable margins within error bounds, with no single opponent consolidating enough backing to overtake Lula before the first round. The election's two-round system and high undecided or null shares further reinforce the current ordering in market assessments.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$142,402
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Fonte di risoluzione

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a consistent lead in first-round polling aggregates ahead of the October 4 vote, typically capturing 38-44% support against Flávio Bolsonaro's 34-42% range, with fragmented right-wing alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury each in the low single digits. This distribution positions the incumbent Workers' Party candidate as the clear frontrunner for a plurality, consistent with trader pricing that assigns him the highest implied probability while pricing Bolsonaro as the primary challenger. Recent surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and PoderData through mid-September show stable margins within error bounds, with no single opponent consolidating enough backing to overtake Lula before the first round. The election's two-round system and high undecided or null shares further reinforce the current ordering in market assessments.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$142,402
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Fonte di risoluzione

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...

Correlati

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro finirà al secondo posto nel primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

Flávio Bolsonaro finirà al secondo posto nel primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

72%
Sì
icon for Renan Santos finirà al terzo posto nel primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

Renan Santos finirà al terzo posto nel primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?

55%
Sì
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane nel Distretto Federale?

Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane nel Distretto Federale?

92%
Sì

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Domande frequenti

"Vincitore del primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 13 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Lula" a 69%, seguito da "Flavio Bolsonaro" a 30%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 69¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 69% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Vincitore del primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile" ha generato $142.4K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Aug 31, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Vincitore del primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile", esplora i 13 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Vincitore del primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile" è "Lula" a 69%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 69% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Flavio Bolsonaro" a 30%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Vincitore del primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.