Arizona's 2026 gubernatorial race between incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican nominee Andy Biggs features a closely contested matchup in a state with roughly 4.3 million registered voters. Recent July primary turnout fell to just 27%, the lowest in nearly two decades, reflecting subdued enthusiasm ahead of the November 3 general election and potentially carrying over to moderate overall participation. Historical midterm patterns, including 2022's roughly 2.59 million ballots cast, combined with early voting logistics and negative campaigning trends, support trader focus on the 2.45–2.75 million range. A polarized electorate and battleground dynamics could increase mobilization, while structural factors like the shifted primary calendar and independent voter behavior introduce uncertainty that keeps leading probabilities tightly clustered.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato2,6M-2,75M 40%
2,45M-2,6M 27%
2,75M-2,9M 19%
2,9M-3,05M 14.0%
<2M
6%
2M-2,15M
1%
2,15M-2,3M
6%
2,3M-2,45M
2%
2,45M-2,6M
27%
2,6M-2,75M
40%
2,75M-2,9M
19%
2,9M-3,05M
8%
3,05M-3,2M
12%
3,2M+
5%
2,6M-2,75M 40%
2,45M-2,6M 27%
2,75M-2,9M 19%
2,9M-3,05M 14.0%
<2M
6%
2M-2,15M
1%
2,15M-2,3M
6%
2,3M-2,45M
2%
2,45M-2,6M
27%
2,6M-2,75M
40%
2,75M-2,9M
19%
2,9M-3,05M
8%
3,05M-3,2M
12%
3,2M+
5%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 18, 2026, 10:08 AM ET
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Arizona's 2026 gubernatorial race between incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican nominee Andy Biggs features a closely contested matchup in a state with roughly 4.3 million registered voters. Recent July primary turnout fell to just 27%, the lowest in nearly two decades, reflecting subdued enthusiasm ahead of the November 3 general election and potentially carrying over to moderate overall participation. Historical midterm patterns, including 2022's roughly 2.59 million ballots cast, combined with early voting logistics and negative campaigning trends, support trader focus on the 2.45–2.75 million range. A polarized electorate and battleground dynamics could increase mobilization, while structural factors like the shifted primary calendar and independent voter behavior introduce uncertainty that keeps leading probabilities tightly clustered.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il totale dei voti espressi nelle elezioni di metà mandato del 2026 per il Governatore della California sarà compreso tra 10.500.000 e 11.000.000?
Il totale dei voti espressi nelle elezioni di metà mandato del 2026 per il Governatore della Pennsylvania sarà compreso tra 5.000.000 e 5.500.000?
Il numero totale di voti espressi nelle elezioni di metà mandato del 2026 per il Governatore del Wisconsin sarà compreso tra 2.600.000 e 2.800.000?
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti