US military actions against Venezuela peaked with the January 2026 special forces raid that captured Nicolás Maduro, followed by ongoing naval presence, targeted strikes on drug-related targets, and an oil blockade that secured American stakes in Venezuelan fields. The interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez has engaged in talks on judicial reform and oil production deals, including a 35% US interest in key reserves announced in late August 2026, while receiving humanitarian support after recent earthquakes. These developments have produced trader consensus on low odds for a full-scale invasion by year-end, as leverage through sanctions, diplomacy, and resource agreements appears to have met core US objectives without requiring territorial control or broader offensive operations. Scheduled opposition-government negotiations and potential election timelines could further stabilize relations or introduce new frictions.