Traders assign a 97.7% implied probability to no U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 due to the absence of any military buildup, diplomatic rupture, or policy signals from the White House or Pentagon. Bilateral security cooperation continues on counternarcotics and regional stability without escalation, consistent with longstanding alliance patterns and Senate oversight requirements for major force deployments. No congressional authorizations, troop movements, or executive statements have altered this baseline. Late developments such as a sudden Colombian government collapse, major territorial dispute involving external actors, or unprecedented hemispheric crisis could still shift assessments, though none are evident in current reporting.