Sustained U.S.-Mexico security cooperation and explicit Mexican rejections of unilateral military action underpin the overwhelming trader consensus against a U.S. invasion in 2026. President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly ruled out any U.S. troop presence for operations against cartels, while bilateral agreements on drone technology and joint training exercises continue, including Senate approval for 139 U.S. personnel in Chihuahua through September. Rhetoric from U.S. officials on targeting cartels as terrorist organizations has prompted pressure for expanded roles, yet remains framed around coordination rather than territorial control. Deep economic ties under USMCA, Mexican public opposition to sovereignty infringements, and the absence of congressional authorization or active war plans reinforce the low implied probability. A sudden breakdown in diplomacy or major escalation in cross-border threats could still shift assessments before year-end.