Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi counteroffensive north of Lyman has reclaimed over 100 square kilometers since summer 2026, pushing Russian forces back across the Chornyi Zherebets River and disrupting plans to encircle Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north. Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps units used drone strikes, information silence, and localized mechanized pushes to eliminate Russian salients and stabilize the line, while Russian attempts to advance with small assault groups and motorcycle infantry have stalled amid heavy losses. Moscow has shifted emphasis southward toward Dobropillya and Mykolaivka, though Lyman remains a key anchor in Ukraine’s Donetsk defenses. These developments have tempered trader expectations for a Russian capture by year-end, highlighting the grinding nature of Donbas fighting and the impact of Ukrainian tactical adaptations on the broader front.