Xi Jinping’s scheduled three-day state visit to Washington, concluding on September 25, anchors the market’s near-certainty on that date. Chinese and U.S. officials publicly set the September 23–25 window in advance, with the main bilateral summit, state dinner, and National Archives event placed on the 24th and a planned departure the following day. No credible reports indicate schedule slippage, health concerns, or diplomatic incidents that would extend the trip or force an earlier exit. The compressed timeline matches standard practice for high-level summits between the two leaders. Late developments such as sudden flight delays, new bilateral agreements requiring additional talks, or unforeseen security issues remain the only plausible variables that could alter the departure timing reflected in current pricing.