Ongoing military confrontation and the complete absence of diplomatic channels between Israel and Iran since 1979 underpin traders' 97.9% consensus against embassy reopening in 2026. Joint U.S.-Israeli strikes beginning in February 2026, including the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, escalated direct conflict and destroyed any near-term path to normalization. As of mid-September, Iran has conveyed conditions for talks through Qatari mediators amid continued sanctions and naval tensions, while Israel maintains a posture of sustained pressure. A verifiable ceasefire followed by formal recognition would be required to shift odds, though such steps remain structurally improbable within the remaining months of the year given entrenched security priorities on both sides.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
2% peluang
$194,518 Vol.
$194,518 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% peluang
$194,518 Vol.
$194,518 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing military confrontation and the complete absence of diplomatic channels between Israel and Iran since 1979 underpin traders' 97.9% consensus against embassy reopening in 2026. Joint U.S.-Israeli strikes beginning in February 2026, including the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, escalated direct conflict and destroyed any near-term path to normalization. As of mid-September, Iran has conveyed conditions for talks through Qatari mediators amid continued sanctions and naval tensions, while Israel maintains a posture of sustained pressure. A verifiable ceasefire followed by formal recognition would be required to shift odds, though such steps remain structurally improbable within the remaining months of the year given entrenched security priorities on both sides.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volume
$194,518Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing military confrontation and the complete absence of diplomatic channels between Israel and Iran since 1979 underpin traders' 97.9% consensus against embassy reopening in 2026. Joint U.S.-Israeli strikes beginning in February 2026, including the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, escalated direct conflict and destroyed any near-term path to normalization. As of mid-September, Iran has conveyed conditions for talks through Qatari mediators amid continued sanctions and naval tensions, while Israel maintains a posture of sustained pressure. A verifiable ceasefire followed by formal recognition would be required to shift odds, though such steps remain structurally improbable within the remaining months of the year given entrenched security priorities on both sides.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$194,518Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military confrontation and the complete absence of diplomatic channels between Israel and Iran since 1979 underpin traders' 97.9% consensus against embassy reopening in 2026. Joint U.S.-Israeli strikes beginning in February 2026, including the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, escalated direct conflict and destroyed any near-term path to normalization. As of mid-September, Iran has conveyed conditions for talks through Qatari mediators amid continued sanctions and naval tensions, while Israel maintains a posture of sustained pressure. A verifiable ceasefire followed by formal recognition would be required to shift odds, though such steps remain structurally improbable within the remaining months of the year given entrenched security priorities on both sides.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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