Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat previously held by Republican Wesley Hunt, maintains a strong Republican baseline with ratings from Solid R to Safe R across major forecasters. Jon Bonck secured the GOP nomination after winning the May 2026 runoff with 65 percent, backed by endorsements from President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and other party leaders, alongside over $1.5 million in fundraising. Democrat Melissa McDonough advanced from her March primary but has raised under $50,000. These factors, combined with the district's partisan composition and limited recent developments in the seven weeks before the November general election, underpin trader consensus favoring Bonck. Unforeseen events such as a major scandal or sharp turnout shift could narrow the gap, though structural advantages limit realistic paths for the challenger.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTX-38 House Election Winner
TX-38 House Election Winner
$28,006 Vol.
$28,006 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jon Bonck (R)
93%
Melissa McDonough (D)
4%
$28,006 Vol.
$28,006 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jon Bonck (R)
$17,956 Vol.
93%
Melissa McDonough (D)
$10,050 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat previously held by Republican Wesley Hunt, maintains a strong Republican baseline with ratings from Solid R to Safe R across major forecasters. Jon Bonck secured the GOP nomination after winning the May 2026 runoff with 65 percent, backed by endorsements from President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and other party leaders, alongside over $1.5 million in fundraising. Democrat Melissa McDonough advanced from her March primary but has raised under $50,000. These factors, combined with the district's partisan composition and limited recent developments in the seven weeks before the November general election, underpin trader consensus favoring Bonck. Unforeseen events such as a major scandal or sharp turnout shift could narrow the gap, though structural advantages limit realistic paths for the challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$28,006Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat previously held by Republican Wesley Hunt, maintains a strong Republican baseline with ratings from Solid R to Safe R across major forecasters. Jon Bonck secured the GOP nomination after winning the May 2026 runoff with 65 percent, backed by endorsements from President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and other party leaders, alongside over $1.5 million in fundraising. Democrat Melissa McDonough advanced from her March primary but has raised under $50,000. These factors, combined with the district's partisan composition and limited recent developments in the seven weeks before the November general election, underpin trader consensus favoring Bonck. Unforeseen events such as a major scandal or sharp turnout shift could narrow the gap, though structural advantages limit realistic paths for the challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,006Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat previously held by Republican Wesley Hunt, maintains a strong Republican baseline with ratings from Solid R to Safe R across major forecasters. Jon Bonck secured the GOP nomination after winning the May 2026 runoff with 65 percent, backed by endorsements from President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and other party leaders, alongside over $1.5 million in fundraising. Democrat Melissa McDonough advanced from her March primary but has raised under $50,000. These factors, combined with the district's partisan composition and limited recent developments in the seven weeks before the November general election, underpin trader consensus favoring Bonck. Unforeseen events such as a major scandal or sharp turnout shift could narrow the gap, though structural advantages limit realistic paths for the challenger.
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